Mbia Inc: Form 10-Q for the period ended Sep 30, 2023

The table below presents purchases or repurchases made by the Company or National in each month during the third quarter of 2023:

(1) Includes 232,339 in September that were withheld from participants for income tax purposes whose shares of restricted stock vested during the period. Such restricted stock was originally issued to participants under the Company’s long-term incentive plan. 102 shares in July, 107 shares in August, and 115 shares in September were repurchased in open market transactions as investments in the Company’s non-qualified deferred compensation plan.

(2) On May 3, 2023, the Company’s Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program authorizing the Company and/or National to purchase up to $100 million of the Company’s shares in open market transactions, in privately negotiated transactions or by any other legal means.

The Company’s market risk exposures relate to changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and credit spreads that affect the fair value of its financial instruments, primarily investment securities, MTNs and investment agreement liabilities. The Company’s investments are primarily U.S. dollar-denominated fixed-income securities including municipal bonds, U.S. government bonds, corporate bonds, MBS and asset-backed securities. In periods of rising and/or volatile interest rates, foreign exchange rates and credit spreads, profitability could be adversely affected should the Company have to liquidate these securities. The Company minimizes its exposure to interest rate risk, foreign exchange risk and credit spread movement through active portfolio management to ensure a proper mix of the types of securities held and to stagger the maturities of its fixed-income securities. There following tables present updates in our market risk exposures since December 31, 2022.

INTEREST RATE SENSITIVITY

Interest rate sensitivity can be estimated by projecting a hypothetical instantaneous increase or decrease in interest rates. The following table presents the estimated pre-tax change in fair value of the Company’s financial instruments as of September 30, 2023 from instantaneous shifts in interest rates:

In millions

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE SENSITIVITY

The Company is exposed to foreign exchange rate risk in respect of liabilities denominated in currencies other than U.S. dollars. Certain liabilities included in our corporate segment are denominated in currencies other than U.S. dollars. The majority of the Company’s foreign exchange rate risks is with the Euro. Foreign exchange rate sensitivity can be estimated by projecting a hypothetical instantaneous increase or decrease in foreign exchange rates. The following table presents the estimated pre-tax change in fair value of the Company’s financial instruments as of September 30, 2023 from instantaneous shifts in foreign exchange rates:

CREDIT SPREAD SENSITIVITY

Credit spread sensitivity can be estimated by projecting a hypothetical instantaneous increase or decrease in credit spreads. The following table presents the estimated pre-tax change in fair value of the Company’s financial instruments as of September 30, 2023 from instantaneous shifts in credit spread curves. It was assumed that all credit spreads move by the same amount. It is more likely that the actual changes in credit spreads will vary by security. The changes in fair value reflect partially offsetting effects as the value of the investment portfolios generally changes in an opposite direction from the liability portfolio:

In millions

As of the end of the period covered by this report, an evaluation of the effectiveness of the design and operation of the Company’s disclosure controls and procedures (as such term is defined in Rules 13a-15(e) and 15(d)-15(e) under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934) was performed under the supervision and with the participation of the Company’s senior management, including the Chief Executive Officer and the Chief Financial Officer. Based on that evaluation, the Company’s management, including the Chief Executive Officer and the Chief Financial Officer, concluded that the Company’s disclosure controls and procedures were effective as of the end of the period covered by this report. In addition, there have not been any changes in the Company’s internal control over financial reporting (as such term is defined in Rules 13a-15(f) and 15d-15(f) under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934) during the fiscal quarter to which this report relates that have materially affected, or are likely to materially affect, the Company’s internal control over financial reporting.

The following should be read in conjunction with and supplements the risk factors described under Part I, Item 1A, “Risk Factors” of the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022. Except as set forth below, there have been no material changes to the risk factors previously disclosed in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022.

Insured Portfolio Loss Related Risk Factors

Some of the state, local and territorial governments and finance authorities and other providers of public services, located in the U.S. or abroad, that issued public finance obligations we insured are experiencing fiscal stress that could result in increased credit losses or impairments on those obligations.

Certain issuers are reporting fiscal stress that has resulted in a significant increase in taxes and/or a reduction in spending or other measures in efforts to satisfy their financial obligations. In particular, certain jurisdictions have significantly underfunded pension liabilities which are placing additional stress on their finances and are particularly challenging to restructure either through negotiation or under Chapter 9 of the United States Bankruptcy Code. If the issuers of the obligations in our public finance portfolio are unable to raise taxes, or increase other revenues, cut spending, reduce liabilities, and/or receive state or federal assistance, we may experience losses or impairments on those obligations, which could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations. The financial stress experienced by certain municipal issuers could result in the filing of Chapter 9 proceedings in states where municipal issuers are permitted to seek bankruptcy protection. In these proceedings, which remain rare, the resolution of bondholder claims (and by extension, those of bond insurers) may be subject to legal challenge by other creditors.

In particular, while the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico has completed its court-ordered restructuring pursuant to the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management and Economic Stability Act (“PROMESA”), the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (“PREPA”) currently remains in a bankruptcy-like proceeding under PROMESA in the United States District Court for the District of Puerto Rico.

As of September 30, 2023, National had $808 million of debt service outstanding related to PREPA. On January 1, 2023, PREPA defaulted on scheduled debt service for certain National insured bonds and National paid gross claims in the aggregate of $18 million. In addition, on July 1, 2023, PREPA defaulted on scheduled debt service for National insured bonds and National paid gross claims in the aggregate of $119 million. On January 31, 2023, National and the Oversight Board entered into a Plan Support Agreement, resolving National’s claims in the PREPA Title III case (the “PREPA PSA”), and on February 9, 2023, the Oversight Board filed its Amended Plan of Adjustment for PREPA (the “Amended Plan”), including the PREPA PSA. On August 25, 2023, National entered into the First Amendment to the PREPA Plan Support Agreement (the “Amended PSA”) with the Oversight Board, on behalf of itself and as the sole Title III representative of PREPA. On August 25, 2023, the Oversight Board filed its Third Amended Title III Plan of Adjustment (the “Third Amended Plan”) incorporating, among other things, the terms of the Amended PSA. The Amended PSA provides that, upon the effective date of the Third Amended Plan, National shall receive cash, together with certain fees and expense reimbursement payments, in an amount based in part on the ultimate participation, if any, of certain currently non-accepting holders of uninsured PREPA bonds. The Amended PSA also provides National with additional consideration in the form of two types of contingent values instruments, whose value cannot be assured. The Amended PSA remains subject to a number of conditions, including (but not limited to) the Title III Court’s approval of the Amended PSA and the confirmation and effectiveness of the Third Amended Plan, as it may be further amended with the Court’s approval. Confirmation is currently scheduled to begin March 4, 2024.

Refer to the “U.S. Public Finance Insurance Puerto Rico Exposures” section in Part I, Item 2 of this Form 10-Q for additional information on our Puerto Rico exposures.