Green Plains Inc.: Form 10-Q for the period ended Mar 31, 2025

General

The following discussion and analysis provides information we believe is relevant to understand our consolidated financial condition and results of operations. This discussion should be read in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements and notes to the consolidated financial statements contained in this report together with our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024.

Cautionary Information Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

Forward-looking statements are made in accordance with safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on current expectations that involve a number of risks and uncertainties and do not relate strictly to historical or current facts, but rather to plans and objectives for future operations. These statements may be identified by words such as “anticipate,” “believe,” “continue,” “estimate,” “expect,” “intend,” “outlook,” “plan,” “predict,” “may,” “could,” “should,” “will” and similar expressions, as well as statements regarding future operating or financial performance or guidance, business strategy, environment, key trends and benefits of actual or planned acquisitions.

Factors that could cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, those discussed in Part I, Item 1A – Risk Factors of our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024 and in Part II, Item 1A, “Risk Factors” in this report, or incorporated by reference. Specifically, we may experience fluctuations in future operating results due to a number of economic conditions and other factors, including: the status, expected timing, and expected outcome of our Board of Directors' ongoing review of strategic alternatives; the failure to realize the anticipated results from the new products being developed; the failure to realize the anticipated costs savings or other benefits of the Merger; local, regional and national economic conditions and the impact they may have on the company and its customers; disruption caused by health epidemics; conditions in the ethanol and biofuels industry, including a sustained decrease in the level of supply or demand for ethanol and biofuels or a sustained decrease in the price of ethanol or biofuels; competition in the ethanol industry and other industries in which we operate; commodity market risks, including those that may result from weather conditions, changes in government policies, and global political or economic issues; the financial condition of the company’s customers and counterparties; any non-performance by customers and counterparties of their contractual obligations; changes in customer, employee or supplier relationships resulting from the Merger; changes in safety, health, environmental and other governmental policy and regulation, including changes to tax laws, tariffs, renewable fuel programs, and low carbon programs; risks related to acquisition and disposition activities and achieving anticipated results; risks associated with merchant trading; risks related to our equity method investees; the results of any reviews, investigations or other proceedings by government authorities; the performance of the company; and other factors detailed in reports filed with the SEC.

We believe our expectations regarding future events are based on reasonable assumptions; however, these assumptions may not be accurate or account for all risks and uncertainties. Consequently, forward-looking statements are not guaranteed. Actual results may vary materially from those expressed or implied in our forward-looking statements. In addition, we are not obligated and do not intend to update our forward-looking statements as a result of new information unless it is required by applicable securities laws. We caution investors not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which represent management’s views as of the date of this report or documents incorporated by reference.

Overview

Green Plains is an Iowa corporation, founded in June 2004 as a producer of low-carbon fuels and has grown to be a leading biorefining company maximizing the potential of existing resources through fermentation and patented agribusiness technologies. We continue the transition from a commodity-processing business to a value-added agricultural technology company creating lower carbon, high-value ingredients from existing resources. To that end, we are currently executing on a number of initiatives to develop and implement proven agricultural, food and industrial biotechnology systems that allow for product diversification, new market opportunities and production of additional value-added low-carbon ingredients, such as Ultra-High Protein, low-CI dextrose, renewable corn oil and more, as well as offering these technologies to the broader biofuels industry. We are a leader in deploying carbon capture technology to reduce the CI of our biofuels at several of our production facilities.

We group our business activities into the following two operating segments to manage performance:

• Ethanol Production. Our ethanol production segment includes the production, storage and transportation of ethanol, distillers grains, Ultra-High Protein and renewable corn oil at ten biorefineries in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and Tennessee. At capacity, our ten facilities are capable of processing approximately 310 million bushels of corn per year and producing approximately 903 million gallons of ethanol, 2.2 million tons of distillers grains and Ultra-High Protein, and 310 million pounds of renewable corn oil, a low-carbon feedstock for biodiesel, renewable diesel and SAF. We are one of the largest ethanol producers in North America.
• Agribusiness and Energy Services. Our agribusiness and energy services segment includes grain procurement, with approximately 20.2 million bushels of grain storage capacity, and our commodity marketing business, which markets, sells and distributes the ethanol, distillers grains and renewable corn oil produced at our ethanol plants. We also buy and sell ethanol, distillers grains, renewable corn oil, grain, natural gas and other commodities in various markets.

As part of our carbon reduction strategy, we committed our seven biorefineries in Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota to carbon capture and sequestration projects through carbon pipeline transport, our four Iowa and Minnesota facilities with Summit Carbon Solutions and our three Nebraska biorefineries with Trailblazer CO2 Pipeline LLC, which will lower GHG emissions through the capture of biogenic carbon dioxide at each of these biorefineries, significantly lowering their CI, in some cases by more than half. We have executed agreements for the future purchase, financing and installation of carbon capture equipment at our three Nebraska plants. We anticipate completion of these Nebraska biorefinery carbon capture projects in the fourth quarter of 2025, and Summit Carbon Solutions intends to be operational in 2027. There are few ethanol production facilities with carbon capture in place today, and we believe we may be among the first to produce lower-CI ethanol at scale. In addition, we are exploring alternatives for biogenic carbon dioxide utilization where pipeline transport or direct injection may not be feasible. Reducing the CI of our ethanol could allow us to benefit from state, federal and foreign clean fuel programs, including LCFS programs at the state level and federal tax credits under the IRA, including the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, and could position our low-carbon ethanol as a potential feedstock for ATJ pathways to produce SAF.

SAF is a drop-in fuel, chemically identical to petroleum-based jet fuel and can be blended into the fuel supply at varying levels. There is an increasing focus on using this fuel to reduce the carbon footprint of air travel. SAF can be produced from vegetable and waste oil feedstocks, such as our renewable corn oil. Additionally, ATJ technologies are emerging and being commercialized that use low-CI ethanol as a feedstock to produce SAF. In January 2023, Green Plains, United Airlines and Tallgrass formed a joint venture, Blue Blade Energy, to explore development and commercialization of ATJ SAF.

We have installed and are operating FQT MSC™ technology at five of our biorefineries. Through our value-added ingredients initiative, we produce Ultra-High Protein, a feed ingredient with protein concentrations of 50% or greater and yeast concentrations of 25%, increase production of renewable corn oil and produce other higher value products, such as post-MSC™ distillers grains. We successfully completed full scale 60% protein production runs using FQT's MSC™ system, which is our specialty feed ingredient branded as Sequence™. We formed a 50/50 joint venture with Tharaldson Ethanol Plant I LLC (Tharaldson Ethanol), which owns the MSC™ technology assets added adjacent to the Tharaldson Ethanol plant in Casselton, North Dakota to produce Ultra-High Protein and increase renewable corn oil yields. Operations commenced during the second quarter of 2024. Including GP Turnkey Tharaldson's capacity, the annual Ultra-High Protein capacity we market is approximately 430 thousand tons.

The world's first commercial scale FQT CST™ facility in Shenandoah, Iowa has achieved successful ongoing production of dextrose syrups with CST™. The FQT CST™ technology allows for the production of both food and industrial grade low carbon-intensity glucose and dextrose corn syrups to target applications in food production, renewable chemicals and synthetic biology. The facility is currently capable of producing approximately 60 million pounds of product per year. During the quarter, the company idled its operations at the Clean Sugar Technology (CST™) facility in Shenandoah, Iowa, as the company focuses on optimizing its product mix to maximize current returns. CST™ has already proven its ability to produce a high-purity dextrose with a lower carbon intensity and the company remains confident in its commercial potential. The decision to temporarily pause operations presents an opportunity to further refine the dextrose production process.

In July 2023, we announced a technology collaboration with Equilon Enterprises LLC, which allows us to use FQT’s precision separation and processing technology with Shell Fiber Conversion Technology. The two technologies combine fermentation, mechanical separation and processing, and fiber conversion into one platform. This has the potential to liberate all of the remaining distillers corn oil currently bound in the fiber fraction of the corn kernel, generate cellulosic sugars for production of low-carbon ethanol, and enhance and expand available high protein to produce high-quality ingredients for global pet, livestock and aquaculture diets. Our collaboration completed the construction of a large demonstration facility at Green Plains York and began commissioning during 2024.

Our profitability is highly dependent on commodity prices, particularly for ethanol, distillers grains, Ultra-High Protein, renewable corn oil, soybean meal, corn, and natural gas. Since market price fluctuations of these commodities are not always correlated, our operations may be unprofitable at times. We use a variety of risk management tools and hedging strategies to monitor price risk exposure at our ethanol plants and lock in favorable margins or reduce production when margins are compressed. Our profitability could be significantly impacted by price movements of the aforementioned commodities.

Recent Developments

Junior Notes and Warrant Amendments

On May 7, 2025, the company entered into an amendment to its $125 million junior secured mezzanine notes (the “Junior Notes”) with BlackRock to extend the maturity date to May 15, 2026, with an amendment fee of 2.0% to be added to the principal balance of the Junior Notes, payable at the maturity date. The amendment includes a trigger date of July 31, 2025, at which date if the Junior Notes are not repaid additional collateral will be required, fees will be assessed, and BlackRock's warrants will be repriced from a $22.00 to a $7.00 exercise price with the maturity date extended from April 28, 2026 to December 31, 2029.

Ancora Credit Facility and Warrants

On May 7, 2025, the company entered into a secured $30 million revolving credit facility with Ancora Alternatives LLC, that matures on July 30, 2025. The facility bears interest at 10% on borrowings and has a 0.5% fee on the unused balance. Interest and fees are due on the 5th of each month. Also executed as part of the credit facility, the company has issued 1,504,140 stock warrants at a strike price of $0.01 per share. The warrants have a ten year exercise period.

Ethanol Marketing Agreement with Eco-Energy, LLC

On April 16, 2025, the company entered into an ethanol marketing agreement with Eco-Energy, LLC. The marketing agreement is for a term of five years, with certain early termination rights, and requires the company to sell exclusively to the Eco-Energy LLC, and for Eco-Energy LLC to purchase from the company all fuel grade ethanol, or other ethanol specifications as agreed to for a predetermined market-based marketing fee that may be adjusted based on gallons shipped. Eco-Energy, LLC has also agreed to handle certain back office duties related to the ethanol marketing and logistics across the company's platform, providing end-to-end support to optimize value, expand market access and improve supply chain efficiency. On April 14, 2025, a conforming amendment was entered into on the $350 million revolver to accommodate concentration risk with Eco-Energy, LLC.

Cooperation Agreement

On April 11, 2025, the company entered into a Cooperation Agreement with Ancora Holdings Group, LLC, a long-term shareholder, which outlines certain compositional changes to the Board, and provides for a standstill, voting commitment and other customary provisions.

The changes to the Board resulted in the appointment of three individuals as independent members on April 14, 2025, Steve Furcich, Carl Grassi, and Patrick Sweeney. These individuals were appointed as part of the continuation of the company's refreshment of the Board as they possess additive experience in key areas such as the agriculture and commodities sector, capital allocation, finance, long-term planning, and strategic reviews and transactions. Now through the Annual Meeting, the appointments will result in an expansion of the Board to ten members. The Board will be reduced to eight members due to Ejnar A. Knudsen III and Alain Treuer not standing for re-election at this year’s Annual Meeting.

Leadership Transition

On February 28, 2025, the company announced the departure of Todd Becker as President and Chief Executive Officer and member of the Board, effective March 1, 2025. The Board has engaged an executive search firm to identify a new Chief Executive Officer. The Board appointed Michelle Mapes, Chief Legal & Administration Officer, as Interim Principal Executive Officer, and also appointed an executive committee comprised of Ms. Mapes, Jamie Herbert, Chief Human Resource Officer, Chris Osowski, Executive Vice President – Operations and Technology, and Imre Havasi, Senior Vice

President – Head of Trading and Commercial Operations to lead the company until Mr. Becker’s successor is appointed. The Board designated Ms. Mapes as Interim Principal Executive Officer, effective as of March 1, 2025. As part of the company’s corporate reorganization and cost reduction initiative, Michelle Mapes' position as Chief Legal and Administration Officer and Corporate Secretary will be eliminated, effective no later than December 31, 2025, and both Grant Kadavy's position of EVP - Commercial Operations and Leslie van der Meulen's position of EVP - Product Marketing and Innovation were eliminated, effective February 6, 2025.

Restructuring Costs

As part of the strategic review process, in early 2025, the company launched a corporate reorganization and cost reduction initiative that will significantly reduce selling, general and administrative expenses on an ongoing basis. As part of this initiative, the company identified approximately $45 million of financial improvement annually, inclusive of savings from idling the Fairmont, Minnesota facility, transitioning to a third party ethanol marketer, and realigning corporate and trade group selling, general and administrative functions to reflect current strategic priorities. The company is continuing to identify additional opportunities. As a result of the reorganization, the company recorded one-time restructuring costs in the first quarter of 2025 of $16.6 million, which includes severance related to the departure of its CEO.

Strategic Review

The company initiated a strategic review process in February 2024 to explore a broad range of opportunities to enhance long-term shareholder value, including, but not limited to, acquisitions, divestitures, a merger or sale, partnerships and financings. The Board of Directors continues to progress the strategic review process, working with its financial advisors, BMO Capital Markets Corp. and Moelis & Company, and legal advisors Vinson & Elkins LLP. There is no deadline or definitive timetable for completion of the strategic review process, and there can be no assurances that the process will result in a transaction or any other outcome. The company does not intend to make any further public comment regarding the review until the Board has approved a specific action or otherwise determines that additional disclosure is appropriate or required.

Idling of Clean Sugar Technology facility in Shenandoah, Iowa

During the quarter, the company idled its operations at the Clean Sugar Technology (CST™) facility in Shenandoah, Iowa, as the company focuses on optimizing its product mix to maximize current returns. CST™ has already proven its ability to produce a high-purity dextrose with a lower carbon intensity and the company remains confident in its commercial potential. The decision to temporarily pause operations presents an opportunity to further refine the dextrose production process.

Idling of Fairmont, Minnesota Plant

In January 2025, the company idled its 119 million gallon ethanol plant in Fairmont, Minnesota as a result of persistent margin pressures, and the majority of the staff was terminated. The facility remains on track for carbon capture and sequestration coming online in 2027, which would fundamentally reshape the economics of the facility. The company will continue to monitor the potential margin available to determine any changes to future operations.

Results of Operations

During the first quarter of 2025, we maintained an average utilization rate of approximately 87.7% of capacity, or 99.9% excluding Fairmont, resulting in ethanol production of 195.2 mmg, compared with 208.0 mmg, or 92.4% of capacity, for the same quarter last year. Our operating strategy is to transform our company to a value-add agricultural technology company. Depending on the margin environment, we may exercise operational discretion that results in reductions in production volumes. It is possible that throughput volumes could fluctuate in the future, depending on various factors that drive each biorefinery’s variable contribution margin, including future driving and gasoline demand for the industry, demand for valuable coproducts we produce, and the supply and pricing of renewable feedstocks needed to operate our biorefineries. We are currently producing Ultra-High Protein at five of our biorefineries.

U.S. Ethanol Supply and Demand

According to the EIA, domestic ethanol production averaged 1.08 million barrels per day during the first quarter of 2025, which was approximately 3.8% higher than the 1.04 million barrels per day for the same quarter last year. Refiner and blender input volume was 855 thousand barrels per day for the first quarter of 2025, compared with 851 thousand barrels per day for the same quarter last year. Gasoline demand for the first quarter of 2025 was in line with the prior year quarter at 8.5 million barrels per day. U.S. domestic ethanol ending stocks increased by approximately 0.2 million barrels compared to the prior year, or 0.8%, to 26.6 million barrels as of March 31, 2025.

Global Ethanol Supply and Demand

According to the USDA Foreign Agriculture Service, domestic ethanol exports through February 28, 2025, were approximately 337 mmg, up from the 289 mmg for the same period of 2024. Year to date, Canada was the largest export destination for U.S. ethanol accounting for approximately 31% of domestic ethanol export volume, driven in part by their national clean fuel standard. India, Netherlands, Philippines and United Kingdom accounted for approximately 14%, 11%, 8%, and 7%, respectively, of U.S. ethanol exports. We currently estimate that net ethanol exports will range from 1.8 to 2.1 billion gallons in 2025, based on historical demand from a variety of countries and certain countries that seek to improve their air quality, reduce greenhouse gas emissions through low carbon fuel programs and eliminate MTBE from their own fuel supplies. Fluctuations in currencies relative to the U.S. Dollar could impact the U.S. ethanol competitiveness in the global market.

Protein and Vegetable Oil Supply and Demand

Our dried distillers grains and Ultra-High Protein ingredients compete against other ethanol producers domestically and abroad, as well as with soybean meal, canola meal, and other protein feed ingredients. Likewise our distillers corn oil, which is a feedstock for producing biodiesel, renewable diesel and to some extent SAF, competes against other vegetable oils such as soybean oil, canola oil, and to some extent palm oil, as well as against waste oils such as used cooking oils, animal fats and tallow. While global protein demand has continued to grow since the advent of our transformation, so too has the production of vegetable proteins from multiple companies in an effort to capitalize on this trend, most notably in U.S. soy crushing capacity, which has led to an over-supplied domestic market and compressed protein values. Soybean processing capacity in the U.S. has been expanding to meet the rising demand for vegetable oils to produce renewable fuels. According to the National Oilseed Processors Association, for the first quarter of 2025, soybean crush was approximately 572.9 million bushels, up 4.5 million bushels from the 568.4 million bushels crushed during the first quarter of 2024. Soybean oil stocks for the first quarter of 2025 were 1.5 billion pounds, which was down 0.4 billion pounds from the 1.9 billion pounds of stocks as of March 31, 2024. Soybean meal production was 13.6 million short tons for the first quarter of 2025, up 0.2 million short tons from the 13.4 million short tons from the same period in the prior year.

Legislation and Regulation

We are sensitive to domestic and foreign government programs and policies that affect the supply and demand for ethanol and other fuels, which in turn may impact the volume of ethanol and other products we handle. Following the transition in U.S. presidential administration in early 2025, multiple executive orders signaling a shift in federal energy and environmental policy have been issued. These actions have included prioritization of domestic energy production, including fossil fuel sources, and challenges to state-level climate initiatives. As a result, there remains uncertainty regarding the future of federal support for renewable fuels and low-carbon programs. While we believe that biofuels remain aligned with the broader goals of U.S. energy independence and energy security, we continue to closely monitor evolving federal and state regulatory developments that may affect the supply, demand, or economic incentives for renewable fuels.

Over the years, various bills and amendments have been proposed in the House and Senate, which would eliminate the RFS entirely, eliminate the corn based ethanol portion of the mandate, lower the price of RINs and make it more difficult to sell fuel blends with higher levels of ethanol. Bills have also been introduced to require or otherwise incentivize higher levels of octane blending, allow for year-round sales of higher blends of ethanol, require car manufacturers to produce vehicles that can operate on higher ethanol blends and provide incentives for reducing the CI of biofuels including ethanol. In addition, the manner in which the EPA administers the RFS and related regulations can have a significant impact on the actual amount of ethanol and other biofuels blended into the domestic fuel supply.

Federal and foreign mandates and state-level clean fuel standards supporting the use of renewable fuels are a significant driver of ethanol demand in the U.S. Ethanol policies are influenced by concerns for the environment, diversifying the fuel supply, supporting U.S. farmers and reducing the country’s dependence on foreign oil. Consumer acceptance of FFVs, availability of higher ethanol blends and increased use of higher ethanol blends in non-FFVs may be necessary before ethanol can achieve further growth in the U.S. light duty surface transportation fleet market share. In addition, expansion of clean fuel standards in other states and countries, or a national LCFS could increase the demand for ethanol, depending on how they are structured. Incentives for automakers to produce FFVs phased out in 2020, and the EPA's proposed Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards further incentivize EV production. Sales of EVs in the U.S. were approximately 296 thousand vehicles during the first quarter of 2025, which represented approximately 7.5% of new vehicles sales, up 11.3% from the approximately 266 thousand in 2024. Transition of the light duty surface transportation fleet from internal combustion engines to EVs could decrease the demand for ethanol.

The IRA, which was signed into law on August 16, 2022, is a sweeping policy that could have many potential impacts on our business which we are continuing to evaluate. The legislation (1) created a new Clean Fuel Production Credit, section 45Z of the Internal Revenue Code, of $0.02 per gallon per CI point reduction for any fuel below a 50 CI threshold from 2025 to 2027, which could impact our fuel ethanol, depending on the level of GHG reduction for each gallon; (2) created a new tax credit for SAF, section 40B of the Internal Revenue Code, of $1.25 to $1.75 per gallon for 2023 and 2024, depending on the GHG reduction for each gallon, that could possibly involve some of our renewable corn oil or low carbon ethanol as feedstock through an ATJ pathway, depending on the life cycle analysis model being used (this credit expired after 2024 and shifts to the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, where it qualifies for up to $0.035 per gallon per CI point reduction below a 50 CI threshold); (3) expanded the carbon capture and sequestration credit, section 45Q of the Internal Revenue Code, to $85 for each metric ton of carbon dioxide sequestered, which could impact our carbon capture strategies, though it cannot be claimed in conjunction with the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, which could prove to be more valuable; (4) extended the $1.00 per gallon biomass-based diesel tax credit (this credit expired after 2024 and shifts to the 45Z Clean Fuel Production credit, where all non-SAF fuels qualify for $0.02 per gallon for each point of CI reduction under the 50 CI threshold); (5) funded $500 million of biofuel blending infrastructure, which could impact the availability of higher level ethanol blended fuel; (6) increased funding for climate-smart agriculture and working lands conservation programs for farmers by $20 billion; and (7) provided credits for the production and purchase of EVs, which could impact the amount of internal combustion engines built and sold longer term, and by extension impact the demand for liquid fuels including ethanol. There are numerous additional clean energy credits included in this law, including investment tax credits for construction of clean energy infrastructure, that could impact us and our overall competitiveness. Regulatory rulemaking for the administration of these programs is underway, and the final regulations could impact many aspects of our business.

On April 30, 2024, the U.S. Department of Treasury issued regulatory guidance along with an updated GREET lifecycle assessment model for the 40B SAF tax credit, which included a pathway for U.S. corn ethanol to qualify as a feedstock for SAF if the carbon intensity is lowered through utilization of various technologies and practices, including carbon capture and climate smart agriculture practices. On June 22, 2024, the USDA put out a Request for Information on the Production of Biofuel Feedstocks using climate smart practices, which could inform rulemaking for the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit. On January 10, 2025, the U.S. Department of Treasury issued a notice of intent to propose rulemaking on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, which it published on February 3, 2025 in Internal Revenue Bulletin 2025-6, and on January 15, 2025 the Department of Energy released an updated 45Z GREET LCA model for calculating CI values of various feedstocks and finished fuels under 45Z. Additionally, on January 15, 2025, the USDA put forth interim rules around climate smart agriculture for crops serving as feedstocks for biofuel production, including corn, soybeans and sorghum, though it was not incorporated into Treasury’s 45Z proposed rulemaking at this time. While the proposed regulations are subject to change, and the GREET model could continue to be updated, as of this filing the GREET model indicates that CCS could reduce the CI of corn ethanol by 32 points, and that distillers corn oil used to produce biodiesel, renewable diesel or SAF has a lower CI score relative to most other feedstocks. Additionally, the 45Z rulemaking excluded imported used cooking oil from qualifying for the credit if used as a feedstock to produce on-road fuels, though it still qualifies to produce SAF.

The RFS sets a floor for biofuels use in the United States. In June 2023, the EPA finalized RVOs for 2024 and 2025, setting the implied conventional ethanol levels at 15 billion gallons for 2024 and 2025. The EPA also proposed a modest increase in biomass based diesel volumes over the three years, setting the volumes at 3.04 billion for 2024 and 3.35 billion for 2025. The EPA also indicated that corn kernel fiber would contribute to the finalized cellulosic volumes, and could move to approve registrations that have been languishing for years at the agency. The EPA also removed a proposed e-RIN program to support EVs from the final rule, but indicated they may move forward with it in a separate rulemaking. The EPA was required to propose RVOs for 2026 by November 2024, but the administration indicated on July 8, 2024 that it intends to propose RVOs for 2026 and potentially additional years in March 2025, and finalize them in December 2025. The new administration has not indicated an updated timeline for these rules.

Under the RFS, RINs impact supply and demand. The EPA assigns individual refiners, blenders, and importers the volume of renewable fuels they are obligated to use in each annual RVO based on their percentage of total production of domestic transportation fuel sales. Obligated parties use RINs to show compliance with the RFS mandated volumes. Ethanol producers assign RINs to each gallon of renewable fuel they produce and the RINs are detached when the renewable fuel is blended with transportation fuel domestically. Market participants can trade the detached RINs in the open market. The market price of detached RINs can affect the price of ethanol in certain markets and can influence purchasing decisions by obligated parties. SREs can reduce or waive entirely the obligation for a refinery, which has the practical effect of reducing the RVO, and by extension the number of RINs that need to be retired, which can impact their values and ultimately blending levels of renewable fuels. There are multiple on-going legal challenges to how the EPA has handled SREs and RFS rulemakings. On October 21, 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court agreed to review the various Circuit Court rulings on SREs to determine the proper venue. On February 6, 2025, the U.S. Supreme Court denied the new administration’s request to delay the case and oral arguments took place on March 25, 2025 with a final ruling expected by the end of the current term.

The One-Pound Waiver, which was extended in May 2019 to allow E15 to be sold year-round to all vehicles model year 2001 and newer, was challenged in an action filed in Federal District Court for the D.C. Circuit. On July 2, 2021, the Circuit Court vacated the EPA’s rule so the future of summertime, defined as June 1 to September 15, sales of E15 is uncertain. The Supreme Court subsequently declined to hear a challenge to this ruling. In 2022, the EPA issued emergency waivers to allow for the continued sale of E15 during the summer months and similar summertime waivers have been issued each year since then, with the 2025 driving season marking the seventh consecutive year that E15 is able to be sold year-round nationwide, with the exception of California which has not approved the fuel. On October 25, 2024, the Governor of California issued a directive to CARB to expedite the ongoing multi-year review process for approving the use of E15 in the State.

The EPA has also allowed for the elimination of the One-Pound Waiver for E10 in several Midwestern states beginning with the 2025 summer driving season, which would have the practical effect of allowing for E15 to be sold year- round in the following states: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin. On February 21, 2025, the EPA announced it will uphold the April 28, 2025 implementation date and allowed states until February 26, 2025 to submit a request for delayed implementation. The State of Ohio and the State of South Dakota requested delayed implementation until 2026. Ohio’s request included the entire state and South Dakota’s request was limited to the western portion of their state.

In October 2019, the White House directed the USDA and EPA to move forward with rulemaking to expand access to higher blends of biofuels. This includes funding for infrastructure, labeling changes and allowing E15 to be sold through E10 infrastructure. The USDA rolled out the Higher Blend Infrastructure Incentive Program in the summer of 2020, providing competitive grants to fuel terminals and retailers for installing equipment capable of dispensing higher blends of ethanol and biodiesel. In December 2021, the USDA announced it would administer another infrastructure grant program. The IRA, signed into law in 2022, provided for an additional $500 million in USDA grants for biofuel infrastructure. On June 26, 2023, the USDA announced the initial $50 million in awards, and laid out a process for distributing the remaining $450 million, with $90 million being made available each quarter.

More states are expected to join California, Washington, Oregon, and New Mexico in establishing their own LCFS programs. In recent years, several states have made progress on developing such programs by introducing legislation. Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and New York have all introduced or reintroduced LCFS laws in 2025. However, most are at very early stages and still in committee.

A string of 2024 U.S. Supreme Court decisions, namely Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, SEC v. Jarkesy and Corner Post, Inc. v. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, have redefined the power of federal agencies, as well as overturned the important principle of administrative law called "Chevron deference," based on a landmark case, Chevron U.S.A., Inc. v. Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc. The Chevron deference was a doctrine of judicial deference to administrative interpretations. The general shift in power from agencies to the judicial system resulting from these decisions could impact various regulatory rules affecting our business in ways that could affect our business, prospects and operations, and our financial performance positively or negatively.

Environmental and Other Regulation

Our operations are subject to environmental regulations, including those that govern the handling and release of ethanol, crude oil and other liquid hydrocarbon materials. Compliance with existing and anticipated environmental laws and regulations may increase our overall cost of doing business, including capital costs to construct, maintain, operate, and upgrade equipment and facilities, or limit the feasibility of certain capital improvement, expansion, or other projects due to environmental related permitting restrictions. Our business may also be impacted by government policies, such as tariffs, duties, subsidies, import and export restrictions and outright embargos. While the current administration’s efforts to counter trade barriers in certain countries may ultimately benefit the ethanol industry (such as Brazil, where U.S. ethanol has been subject to tariffs since 2020), the risk of reciprocal tariffs by other countries, including Canada and Mexico, may impede exported volumes. We employ maintenance and operations personnel at each of our facilities, which are regulated by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration.

Comparability

There are various events that could affect comparability of our operating results, including fluctuations in our production rates in 2025 compared to 2024, along with the disposition of our Birmingham, Alabama terminal in September of 2024, the idling of our Fairmont, Minnesota plant in January of 2025 and our corporate restructuring and cost saving initiatives in early 2025.

Segment Results

We report the financial and operating performance for the following two operating segments: (1) ethanol production, which includes the production, storage, and transportation of ethanol, distillers grains, Ultra-High Protein and renewable corn oil and (2) agribusiness and energy services, which includes grain handling and storage, commodity marketing and merchant trading for company-produced and third-party ethanol, distillers grains, renewable corn oil, natural gas and other commodities.

Corporate activities include selling, general and administrative expenses, consisting primarily of compensation, professional fees and overhead costs not directly related to a specific operating segment.

During the normal course of business, our operating segments do business with each other. For example, our agribusiness and energy services segment procures grain and natural gas and sells products, including ethanol, distillers grains, Ultra-High Protein, and renewable corn oil of our ethanol production segment. These intersegment activities are treated like third-party transactions with origination, marketing and storage fees charged at estimated market values. Consequently, these transactions affect segment performance; however, they do not impact our consolidated results since the revenues and corresponding costs are eliminated.

When we evaluate segment performance, we review the following segment information as well as earnings before interest expense, income taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, and adjusted EBITDA.

The selected operating segment financial information is as follows (in thousands):

38

(1) Ethanol production includes an inventory lower of cost or net realizable value adjustment of $2.5 million and $4.2 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.

(2) Corporate activities includes $10.3 million of restructuring costs for the three months ended March 31, 2025 as a result of the company's cost reduction initiative, including severance related to the departure of its CEO.

We use EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, and segment EBITDA as measures of profitability to compare the financial performance of our reportable segments and manage those segments. EBITDA is defined as earnings before interest expense, income taxes, depreciation and amortization excluding the amortization of right-of-use assets and debt issuance costs. Adjusted EBITDA includes adjustments related to restructuring costs and our proportional share of EBITDA adjustments of our equity method investees. We believe EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA and segment EBITDA are useful measures to compare our performance against other companies. These measures should not be considered an alternative to, or more meaningful than, net income, which is prepared in accordance with GAAP. EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, and segment EBITDA calculations may vary from company to company. Accordingly, our computation of EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, and segment EBITDA may not be comparable with a similarly titled measure of other companies.

The following table reconciles net loss including noncontrolling interest to adjusted EBITDA (in thousands):

(1) Excludes amortization of operating lease right-of-use assets and amortization of debt issuance costs.

The following table reconciles segment EBITDA to consolidated adjusted EBITDA (in thousands):

(1) Ethanol production includes an inventory lower of cost or net realizable value adjustment of $2.5 million and $4.2 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.

(2) Corporate activities includes $10.3 million of restructuring costs recorded within selling, general and administrative expenses for the three months ended March 31, 2025 as a result of the company's cost reduction initiative, including severance related to the departure of its CEO.

* Percentage variance not considered meaningful.

Three Months Ended March 31, 2025 Compared with the Three Months Ended March 31, 2024

Consolidated Results

Consolidated revenues increased $4.3 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025 compared with the same period in 2024, primarily due to higher revenues within our agribusiness and energy services segment as a result of higher natural gas prices and margins as well as higher revenues in our ethanol production segment as a result of higher weighted average selling prices on ethanol, offset by lower revenues in our ethanol production segment as a result of lower volumes sold on ethanol, distillers grains and renewable corn oil, and lower weighted average selling prices on distillers grains and renewable corn oil, as described below.

Net loss increased $21.5 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025 compared with the same period last year primarily due to lower margins in our ethanol production and agribusiness and energy services segments as well as restructuring costs incurred of $16.6 million. Adjusted EBITDA decreased $2.7 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025 compared with the same period in 2024 primarily due to lower margins in our ethanol production segment and agribusiness and energy services segment. Interest expense increased $1.1 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025 compared with the same period in 2024 primarily due to lower capitalized interest. Income tax expense was $0.1 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared with income tax expense of $0.3 million for the same period in 2024.

The following discussion provides greater detail about our first quarter segment performance.

Ethanol Production Segment

Key operating data for our ethanol production segment is as follows:

Revenues in our ethanol production segment decreased $7.9 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025 compared with the same period in 2024, primarily due to lower ethanol, distillers grains and renewable corn oil volumes sold resulting in decreased revenues of $21.2 million, $8.3 million and $1.3 million, respectively, lower weighted average selling prices on distillers grains and renewable corn oil resulting in decreased revenues of $17.6 million and $1.8 million, respectively, and lower natural gas and terminal revenues of $3.1 million and $2.1 million, respectively, partially offset by higher ethanol weighted average selling prices resulting in increased revenues of $47.1 million and increased revenues as a result of hedging activities by $2.3 million.

Cost of goods sold in our ethanol production segment decreased $4.8 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025 compared with the same period last year primarily due to lower corn volumes purchased and hedging activities resulting in decreased costs of $21.9 million and $7.4 million, respectively, offset by higher weighted average corn prices resulting in increased costs of $15.1 million and higher ethanol volumes purchased of $11.2 million.

Operating loss in our ethanol production segment increased $5.9 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025 compared with the same period in 2024 primarily due to decreased margins on ethanol production as outlined above. Depreciation and amortization expense for the ethanol production segment was $21.0 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared with $20.5 million for the same period last year.

Agribusiness and Energy Services Segment

Revenues in our agribusiness and energy services segment increased $10.8 million while operating income decreased $4.5 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared with the same period in 2024. The increase in revenues was primarily due to higher natural gas prices and trading volumes. The decrease in operating income was primarily due to lower weighted average trading prices as well as increased personnel costs as a result of restructuring.

Intersegment Eliminations

Intersegment eliminations of revenues decreased by $1.4 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, primarily as a result of lower terminal revenues as well as lower marketing revenues driven by lower volumes.

Corporate Activities

Operating loss was impacted by an increase in corporate activities of $7.0 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025 compared with 2024 primarily due to increased personnel costs as a result of restructuring.

Liquidity and Capital Resources

Our principal sources of liquidity include cash generated from operating activities and bank credit facilities. We fund our operating expenses and service debt primarily with operating cash flows. Capital resources for maintenance and growth expenditures are funded by a variety of sources, including cash generated from operating activities or from debt and equity capital markets. Our ability to access capital markets for debt under reasonable terms depends on our financial condition, credit ratings and market conditions. We believe that our ability to obtain financing at reasonable rates based on these factors remains sufficient and provides a solid foundation to meet our future liquidity and capital resource requirements.

On March 31, 2025, we had $98.6 million in cash and cash equivalents and $28.0 million in restricted cash. We also had $204.5 million available under our committed revolving credit agreement, subject to restrictions or other lending conditions. Total corporate liquidity consisting of unrestricted cash, distributable cash from subsidiaries and credit facility availability was $48.6 million as of March 31, 2025, and has increased to $89.2 million as of May 7, 2025, primarily as a result of the sale of certain non-core assets, and the company entering into a secured $30 million revolving credit facility that matures on July 30, 2025. Funds at certain subsidiaries are generally required for their ongoing operational needs and restricted from distribution. At March 31, 2025, our subsidiaries had approximately $22.3 million of net assets that were not available to use in the form of dividends, loans or advances due to restrictions contained in their credit facilities.

The company has $125.0 million of debt due on May 15, 2026. On or before the maturation of debt in 2026, the Company will require substantial additional liquidity to satisfy these debt obligations. The Company is currently evaluating strategies to obtain the needed additional liquidity to satisfy these obligations, including but not limited to, issuing debt, entering into other financing arrangements, selling assets, or other strategic actions. There can be no assurance that the Company will be able to execute on these strategies when needed or under acceptable terms.

Net cash used in operating activities was $55.0 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared with net cash used in operating activities of $50.6 million for the same period in 2024. Net cash used in operating activities compared to the prior year decreased primarily due to higher net losses and lower collections of accounts receivable. Net cash used in investing activities was $20.7 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared with net cash used in investing activities of $30.2 million for the same period in 2024. Investing activities were primarily affected by lower investment in equity method investees when compared to the same period in the prior year. Net cash used in financing activities was $7.0 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared with net cash used in financing activities of $20.6 million for the same period in 2024, primarily due to the extinguishment of non-controlling interest and payments of transactions costs during 2024.

Additionally, Green Plains Finance Company, Green Plains Trade, Green Plains Grain and Green Plains Commodity Management use revolving credit facilities to finance working capital requirements. We frequently draw from and repay these facilities, which results in significant cash movements reflected on a gross basis within financing activities as proceeds from and payments on short-term borrowings.

We incurred capital expenditures of approximately $16.7 million during the three months ended March 31, 2025, primarily for various capital projects. Capital spending for the remainder of 2025 is expected to be approximately $20.0 million, which is subject to review prior to the initiation of any project. This estimated capital spending for the remainder of 2025 excludes estimated total costs of $110 million related to our carbon capture and sequestration projects to be funded through project related financing.

Our business is sensitive to the price of commodities, particularly for corn, ethanol, distillers grains, Ultra-High Protein, renewable corn oil and natural gas. We use derivative financial instruments to reduce the market risk associated with fluctuations in commodity prices. Sudden changes in commodity prices may require cash deposits with brokers for margin calls or significant liquidity with little advanced notice to meet margin calls, depending on our open derivative positions. We continuously monitor our exposure to margin calls and believe we will continue to maintain adequate liquidity to cover margin calls from our operating results and borrowings.

In August 2014 and October 2019, our Board authorized a share repurchase program of up to $200.0 million of our common stock. Under the program, we may repurchase shares in open market transactions, privately negotiated transactions, accelerated share buyback programs, tender offers or by other means. The timing and amount of repurchase transactions are determined by our management based on market conditions, share price, legal requirements and other factors. The program may be suspended, modified or discontinued at any time without prior notice. Since inception of the repurchase program, we have repurchased 7.4 million shares of common stock for approximately $92.8 million under the program. We did not repurchase any shares of common stock during the first quarter of 2025.

We believe we have sufficient working capital for our existing operations. A continued sustained period of unprofitable operations, however, may strain our liquidity. We may sell additional assets or equity or borrow capital to improve or preserve our liquidity.

Debt

We were in compliance with our debt covenants at March 31, 2025. Based on our forecasts, we anticipate we will maintain compliance at each of our subsidiaries for the next twelve months or have sufficient liquidity available on a consolidated basis to resolve noncompliance. We cannot provide assurance that actual results will approximate our forecasts or that we will inject the necessary capital into a subsidiary to maintain compliance with its respective covenants. In the event a subsidiary is unable to comply with its debt covenants, the subsidiary’s lenders may determine that an event of default has occurred, and following notice, the lenders may terminate the commitment and declare the unpaid balance due and payable.

Corporate Activities

In March 2021, we issued $230.0 million of unsecured 2.25% convertible senior notes due in 2027, or the 2.25% notes. The 2.25% notes bear interest at a rate of 2.25% per year, payable on March 15 and September 15 of each year. The initial conversion rate is 31.6206 shares of our common stock per $1,000 principal amount of 2.25% notes (equivalent to an initial conversion price of approximately $31.62 per share of our common stock), representing an approximately 37.5% premium over the offering price of our common stock. The conversion rate is subject to adjustment upon the occurrence of certain events, including but not limited to; the event of a stock dividend or stock split; the issuance of additional rights, options and warrants; spinoffs; or a tender or exchange offering. In addition, we may be obligated to increase the conversion rate for any conversion that occurs in connection with certain corporate events, including our calling the 2.25% notes for redemption. We may settle the 2.25% notes in cash, common stock or a combination of cash and common stock. At March 31, 2025, the outstanding principal balance on the 2.25% notes was $230.0 million.

On May 7, 2025, we entered into a secured $30 million revolving credit facility with Ancora Alternatives LLC, that matures on July 30, 2025 and gives us additional flexibility and liquidity in order to continue the implementation of our strategic plan. The facility bears interest at 10% on borrowings and has a 0.5% fee on the unused balance. Interest and fees are due on the 5th of each month. Also executed as part of the credit facility, the company has issued 1,504,140 stock warrants at a strike price of $0.01 per share. The warrants have a ten year exercise period.

Ethanol Production Segment

On February 9, 2021, Green Plains SPE LLC, a wholly-owned special purpose subsidiary and parent of Green Plains Obion and Green Plains Mount Vernon issued $125.0 million of junior secured mezzanine notes with BlackRock. On May 7, 2025 the junior notes were amended to give us additional flexibility and liquidity in order to continue the implementation of our strategic plan, which extended the maturity date from February 9, 2026 to May 15, 2026, with an amendment fee of 2.0% to be added to the principal balance of the Junior Notes, payable at the maturity date. The amendment includes a trigger date of July 31, 2025, at which date if the Junior Notes are not repaid additional collateral will be required, fees will be assessed, and BlackRock's warrants will be repriced from a $22.00 to a $7.00 exercise price with the maturity date extended from April 28, 2026 to December 31, 2029. These notes will accrue interest at an annual rate of 11.75%. The company believes that it has adequate access to capital to source appropriate funding to refinance or extinguish the junior secured notes.

Green Plains Shenandoah, a wholly-owned subsidiary, has a $75.0 million secured loan agreement, which matures on September 1, 2035. At March 31, 2025, the outstanding principal balance was $71.3 million on the loan and the interest rate was 6.52%.

We also have small equipment financing loans, finance leases on equipment or facilities, and other forms of debt financing.

Agribusiness and Energy Services Segment

Green Plains Finance Company, Green Plains Grain and Green Plains Trade have total senior secured revolving commitments of $350.0 million and an accordion feature whereby amounts available under the facility may be increased by up to $100.0 million of new lender commitments subject to certain conditions. The facility matures in March 2027. Each SOFR rate loan shall bear interest for each day at a rate per annum equal to the Term SOFR rate for the outstanding period plus a Term SOFR adjustment and an applicable margin of 2.25% to 2.50%, which is dependent on undrawn availability under the facility. Each base rate loan shall bear interest at a rate per annum equal to the base rate plus the applicable margin of 1.25% to 1.50%, which is dependent on undrawn availability under the facility. The unused portion of the facility is also subject to a commitment fee of 0.275% to 0.375%, dependent on undrawn availability. At March 31, 2025, the outstanding principal balance was $129.0 million on the facility and the interest rate was 7.50%.

Green Plains Commodity Management has an uncommitted $40.0 million secured revolving credit facility to finance margins related to its hedging programs. During the first quarter of 2023, this revolving credit facility was extended five years to mature on April 30, 2028. Advances are subject to variable interest rates equal to SOFR plus 1.75%. At March 31, 2025, the outstanding principal balance was $8.4 million on the facility and the interest rate was 6.09%.

Green Plains Grain has a short-term inventory financing agreement with a financial institution. The company has accounted for the agreement as short-term notes, rather than revenues, and has elected the fair value option to offset fluctuations in market prices of the inventory. This agreement is subject to negotiated variable interest rates. The company had no outstanding short-term notes payable related to the inventory financing agreement as of March 31, 2025.

Refer to Note 8 - Debt in the notes to the consolidated financial statements included herein for more information about our debt.

Effects of Inflation

We have experienced inflationary impacts on labor costs, wages, components, equipment, other inputs and services across our business and inflation and its impact could escalate in future quarters, many of which are beyond our control. Moreover, we have fixed price arrangements with our customers and are not able to pass those costs along in most instances. As such, inflationary pressures could have a material adverse effect on our performance and financial statements.

Contractual Obligations and Commitments

In addition to debt, our material future obligations include certain lease agreements and contractual and purchase commitments related to commodities, storage and transportation. Aggregate minimum lease payments under the operating lease agreements for future fiscal years as of March 31, 2025 totaled $75.3 million. As of March 31, 2025, we had contracted future purchases of grain, distillers grains and natural gas valued at approximately $257.0 million, future commitments for storage and transportation valued at approximately $37.7 million, and accumulated commitments related to the construction of carbon capture and sequestration equipment at our three Nebraska plants of $28.5 million. Refer to Note 13 – Commitments and Contingencies included in the notes to consolidated financial statements for more information.

Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates

Critical accounting policies, including those relating to derivative financial instruments and accounting for income taxes, are impacted significantly by judgments, assumptions and estimates used in the preparation of the consolidated financial statements. Information about our critical accounting policies and estimates are included in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024.

Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements

We do not have any off-balance sheet arrangements.

We use various financial instruments to manage and reduce our exposure to various market risks, including changes in commodity prices and interest rates. We conduct the majority of our business in U.S. dollars and are not currently exposed to material foreign currency risk.

Interest Rate Risk

We are exposed to interest rate risk through our loans which bear interest at variable rates. Interest rates on our variable-rate debt are based on the market rate for the lender’s prime rate or SOFR. At March 31, 2025, we had $571.8 million in debt, $137.4 million of which had variable interest rates. A 10% increase in interest rates would affect our interest cost by approximately $1.4 million per year.

For additional information related to our debt, see Note 8 – Debt included herein as part of the notes to the consolidated financial statements and Note 11 – Debt included as part of the notes to the consolidated financial statements included in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024.

Commodity Price Risk

Our business is sensitive to commodity price risk, particularly for ethanol, corn, distillers grains, Ultra-High Protein, renewable corn oil and natural gas. Ethanol prices are sensitive to world crude oil supply and demand, the price of crude oil, gasoline, corn, the price of substitute fuels, refining capacity and utilization, government regulation and consumer demand for alternative fuels. Corn prices are affected by weather conditions, yield, changes in domestic and global supply and demand, and government programs and policies. Distillers grains prices are impacted by livestock numbers on feed, prices for feed alternatives and supply, which is associated with ethanol plant production. Natural gas prices are influenced by severe weather in the summer and winter and hurricanes in the spring, summer and fall. Other factors include North American energy exploration and production, and the amount of natural gas in underground storage during injection and withdrawal seasons.

To reduce the risk associated with fluctuations in the price of ethanol, corn, distillers grains, Ultra-High Protein, renewable corn oil and natural gas, at times we use forward fixed-price physical contracts and derivative financial instruments, such as futures and options executed on the Chicago Board of Trade, the New York Mercantile Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. We focus on locking in favorable operating margins, when available, using a model that continually monitors market prices for corn, natural gas and other inputs relative to the price for ethanol and distillers grains at each of our production facilities. We create offsetting positions using a combination of forward fixed-price purchases, sales contracts and derivative financial instruments. As a result, we frequently have gains on derivative financial instruments that are offset by losses on forward fixed-price physical contracts or inventories and vice versa. Our results are impacted by a mismatch of gains or losses associated with the derivative instrument during a reporting period when the physical commodity purchases or sale has not yet occurred. During the three months ended March 31, 2025, revenues included net gains of $5.2 million, and cost of goods sold included net losses of $8.1 million associated with derivative financial instruments.

Ethanol Production Segment

In the ethanol production segment, net gains and losses from settled derivative instruments are offset by physical commodity purchases or sales to achieve the intended operating margins. To reduce commodity price risk caused by market fluctuations, we enter into exchange-traded futures and options contracts that serve as economic hedges. Our results are impacted when there is a mismatch of gains or losses associated with the derivative instrument during a reporting period when the physical commodity purchases or sale has not yet occurred.

Our exposure to market risk, which includes the impact of our risk management activities resulting from our fixed-price purchase and sale contracts and derivatives, is based on the estimated net income effect resulting from a hypothetical 10% change in price for the next 12 months starting on March 31, 2025, which is as follows (in thousands):

(1) Estimated volumes assume production at full capacity, excluding the idled Fairmont, Minnesota plant.

(2) Includes Ultra-High Protein.

(3) Distillers grains quantities are stated on an equivalent dried ton basis.

Agribusiness and Energy Services Segment

In the agribusiness and energy services segment, our inventories, physical purchase and sale contracts and derivatives are marked to market. Our inventories are carried at the lower of cost or net realizable value, except fair-value hedged inventories. To reduce commodity price risk caused by market fluctuations for purchase and sale commitments of grain and grain held in inventory, we enter into exchange-traded futures and options contracts that serve as economic hedges.

The market value of exchange-traded futures and options used for hedging are highly correlated with the underlying market value of grain inventories and related purchase and sale contracts for grain. The less correlated portion of inventory and purchase and sale contract market values, known as basis, is much less volatile than the overall market value of exchange-traded futures and tends to follow historical patterns. We manage this less volatile risk by constantly monitoring our position relative to the price changes in the market. Inventory values are affected by the month-to-month spread in the futures markets. These spreads are also less volatile than overall market value of our inventory and tend to follow historical patterns, but cannot be mitigated directly. Our accounting policy for futures and options, as well as the underlying inventory held for sale and purchase and sale contracts, is to reflect their current market values and include gains and losses in the consolidated statement of operations.

Evaluation of Disclosure Controls and Procedures

We maintain disclosure controls and procedures designed to ensure the information that must be disclosed in the reports we file or submit under the Exchange Act is recorded, processed, summarized and reported within the time periods specified in the SEC’s rules and forms, and that such information is accumulated and communicated to management, as appropriate, to allow timely decisions regarding required financial disclosure. In designing and evaluating the disclosure controls and procedures, management recognizes that any controls and procedures, no matter how well designed and operated, can provide only reasonable assurance of achieving the desired control objectives. Management is required to apply its judgment in evaluating the cost-benefit relationship of possible controls and procedures.

Under the supervision and participation of our principal executive officer and chief financial officer, management carried out an evaluation of the effectiveness of the design and operation of our disclosure controls and procedures as of March 31, 2025 as defined in Rules 13a-15(e) and 15d-15(e) under the Exchange Act and concluded that our disclosure controls and procedures were effective.

Changes in Internal Control over Financial Reporting

Management is responsible for establishing and maintaining effective internal control over financial reporting to provide reasonable assurance regarding the reliability of our financial reporting and the preparation of our consolidated financial statements for external purposes in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. There were no material changes in our internal control over financial reporting that occurred during the period covered by this report that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, our internal control over financial reporting.

Investors should carefully consider the discussion of risks and the other information in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, in Part I, Item 1A, “Risk Factors,” and the discussion of risks and other information in Part I, Item 2, “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations,” under “Cautionary Information Regarding Forward-Looking Statements,” of this report. Although we have attempted to discuss key factors, our investors need to be aware that other risks may prove to be important in the future. New risks may emerge at any time and we cannot predict such risks or estimate the extent to which they may affect our financial performance. The following risk factors supplement and/or update risk factors previously disclosed and should be considered in conjunction with the other information included in, or incorporated by reference in, this quarterly report on Form 10-Q.

We are exposed to credit risk that could result in losses or affect our ability to make payments should a counterparty fail to perform according to the terms of our agreement.

We are exposed to credit risk from a variety of customers, counterparties, including major integrated oil companies, large independent refiners, petroleum wholesalers, marketing companies and other ethanol plants. We are also exposed to credit risk with major suppliers of petroleum products and agricultural inputs when we make payments for undelivered inventories. Our fixed-price forward contracts are subject to credit risk when prices change significantly prior to delivery. The inability by a third party to pay us for our sales, provide product that was paid for in advance or deliver on a fixed-price contract could result in a loss and adversely impact our liquidity and ability to make our own payments when due.

If the United States were to withdraw from or materially modify certain international trade agreements, our business, financial condition, liquidity and results of operations could be materially adversely affected.

Ethanol and other products that we produce are or have been exported to Canada, Mexico, Brazil, China and other countries. In a previous term, the Trump administration significantly increased tariffs on goods imported into the United States, which in turn led to retaliatory actions on U.S. exports. In early 2025, the Trump administration announced additional tariffs on various imports from China, Mexico, and Canada, and signaled a willingness to renegotiate or withdraw from existing trade agreements. These actions have prompted actual or threatened retaliatory measures against U.S. exports, including ethanol and agricultural products in some cases. The outcome of trade negotiations or lack thereof, has had and/or may continue to have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

The products we buy and sell are subject to price volatility and uncertainty.

Our operating results are highly sensitive to commodity prices.

Corn. We are generally unable to pass increased corn costs to our customers since ethanol competes with other fuels. We continue to see considerable volatility in corn prices. Ethanol plants, livestock industries and other corn-consuming enterprises put significant price pressure on local corn markets. In addition, local corn supplies and prices could be adversely affected by, but not limited to: prices for alternative crops, increasing pricing for seed corn, fertilizers, crop protection products and other input costs; changes in government policies, including crop insurance, conservation programs, regulation of farmland, and other regulations; shifts in global supply and demand; global political or economic issues, including but not limited to the war in Ukraine including sanctions associated therewith; other global conflicts; and global or regional growing conditions, such as plant disease, pests or adverse weather, including drought.

Ethanol. Our revenues are dependent on market prices for ethanol which can be volatile as a result of a number of factors, including but not limited to: the price and availability of competing fuels and oxygenates for fuels; the domestic and global supply and demand for ethanol, gasoline and corn; the price of gasoline, crude oil and corn; global political or economic issues, including but not limited to the war in Ukraine including sanctions associated therewith, other global conflicts; and domestic and foreign government policies that impact the supply, demand and pricing of corn, crude oil, gasoline, ethanol and other liquid fuels.

Ethanol is marketed as a fuel additive that reduces vehicle emissions, an economical source of octane and, to a lesser extent, as a gasoline substitute through higher blends such as E15 and E85. Consequently, gasoline supply and demand can affect the price of ethanol. Should gasoline prices or demand change significantly, our results of operations could be materially impacted.

Ethanol imports also affect domestic supply and demand. Imported ethanol is not subject to an import tariff under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), provided it satisfies the agreement’s rules of origin, which are required for preferential tariff treatment. As of early 2025, denatured ethanol for fuel use imported from Brazil and other countries subject to Most Favored Nation treatment is generally subject to a 1.9% ad valorem tariff, while undenatured ethanol is subject to a 2.5% ad valorem tariff. However, a series of executive orders issued in March and April of 2025 have introduced or proposed significant changes to U.S. trade policy, including a baseline 10% tariff on a broad range of imported goods, unless replaced by higher country-specific rates. These developments have created uncertainty around ethanol import pricing and raised the risk of retaliatory trade measures. We continue to monitor potential adjustments to tariff levels or exemptions as trade negotiations evolve. Under the RFS, sugarcane ethanol from Brazil can be used as a means for obligated parties to meet the advanced biofuel standard in addition to state level low-carbon fuel standards. Brazil is also rapidly expanding corn and corn ethanol production, which can have a lower CI score if it is produced from the second crop or “Safrinha” crop, which could be imported into the U.S. or displace our exports elsewhere globally.

Distillers Grains. Distillers grains compete with other protein-based animal feed products. Downward pressure on other commodity prices, such as corn, wheat, soybeans, soybean meal, and other feed ingredients, will generally cause the price of competing animal feed products to decline, resulting in downward pressure on the price of distillers grains. Occasionally, the price of distillers grains will lag behind fluctuations in corn or other feedstock prices, lowering our cost recovery percentage. Additionally, exports of distiller grains could be impacted by the enactment of foreign policy, or expanded production of soybean meal or distillers grains elsewhere.

Natural Gas. The price and availability of natural gas are subject to volatile market conditions. These market conditions are often affected by factors beyond our control, such as weather, drilling economics, overall economic conditions and government regulations. Significant disruptions in natural gas supply could impair our ability to produce ethanol. Furthermore, increases in natural gas prices or changes in our cost relative to our competitors cannot be passed on to our customers, which may adversely affect our results of operations and financial position.

Ultra-High Protein. Our Ultra-High Protein has unique nutritional advantages and a higher protein concentration than soybean meal and can be included in a variety of feed rations in the pet, dairy, swine, poultry and aquaculture industries. As a value-added feed ingredient, quality control is imperative. Demand for feed products and pricing pressure from competing feed products may result in downward pressure on the price of Ultra-High Protein. Reliable production of Ultra-High Protein from both consistent operations of the biorefinery as well as the MSC™ technology is necessary to produce anticipated volumes. Changes in our customers willingness to accept these ingredients, inconsistency in production volumes, quality or downward pressure on prices could result in adverse impact on our business and profitability.

Renewable Corn Oil. Renewable corn oil is generally marketed as a low-carbon feedstock for biofuel production including renewable diesel, biodiesel and currently to a lesser extent, sustainable aviation fuel; therefore, the price of renewable corn oil is largely driven by demand for renewable diesel and biodiesel. Expanded demand from the renewable diesel and biodiesel industry due to the extended blending tax credit, new tax credits included in the IRA and growing LCFS markets in California, Oregon, Washington state or Canada, as well as customer acceptance for such fuels could impact renewable corn oil demand. In general, renewable corn oil prices follow the prices of heating oil and soybean oil, though LCFS programs incentivize the lower CI of renewable corn oil as a feedstock relative to soybean oil. Federal incentives for sustainable aviation fuel also provide higher credit values for lower CI. Other feedstocks such as used cooking oil and animal fats and tallows are scored at a lower CI than renewable corn oil under most life cycle assessment models, and these feedstocks may be preferred to renewable corn oil. Increased imports of used cooking oil could pressure all vegetable oil values lower. Decreases in the price of or demand for renewable corn oil could have an adverse impact on our business and profitability. While we believe our investments in MSC™ and other technologies have allowed us to capture more renewable corn oil from each bushel, these yields could be negatively impacted by any number of factors.