Vaxart, Inc.: Form 10-Q for the period ended Sep 30, 2023

The following discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operations should be read in conjunction with our condensed consolidated financial statements and related notes included elsewhere in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q and with our audited consolidated financial statements included in our Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC on March 15, 2023. This Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, which are subject to the “safe harbor” created by those sections. Forward-looking statements are based on our management’s beliefs and assumptions and on information currently available to our management. In some cases, you can identify forward-looking statements by terms such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “goal,” “would,” “expect,” “plan,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “project,” “predict,” “potential” and similar expressions intended to identify forward-looking statements and reflect our beliefs and opinions on the relevant subject. Our actual results could differ materially from those discussed in the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to these differences include those discussed below and in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q. The forward-looking statements included in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q are made only as of the date hereof. These statements are based upon information available to us as of the filing date of this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, and while we believe such information forms a reasonable basis for such statements, such information may be limited or incomplete, and our statements should not be read to indicate that we have conducted an exhaustive inquiry into, or review of, all potentially available relevant information. These statements are inherently uncertain, and we caution investors against unduly relying upon these statements. In all events, we undertake no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, change in circumstances, future events or otherwise, and you are advised to consult any additional disclosures that we may make directly to you or through reports that we, in the future, may file with the SEC, including annual reports on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and current reports on Form 8-K.

Company Overview and Background

Vaxart Biosciences, Inc. was originally incorporated in California under the name West Coast Biologicals, Inc. in March 2004 and changed its name to Vaxart, Inc. (“Private Vaxart”) in July 2007, when it reincorporated in the state of Delaware. On February 13, 2018, Private Vaxart completed a reverse merger (the “Merger”) with Aviragen Therapeutics, Inc. (“Aviragen”), pursuant to which Private Vaxart survived as a wholly owned subsidiary of Aviragen. Under the terms of the Merger, Aviragen changed its name to Vaxart, Inc. and Private Vaxart changed its name to Vaxart Biosciences, Inc.

We are a clinical-stage biotechnology company primarily focused on the development of oral recombinant vaccines based on our Vector-Adjuvant-Antigen Standardized Technology (“VAAST”) proprietary oral vaccine platform. We are developing prophylactic vaccine candidates that target a range of infectious diseases, including norovirus (a widespread cause of acute gastroenteritis), coronavirus including SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (“COVID-19”)), and influenza. In addition, we have generated preclinical data for our first therapeutic vaccine candidate targeting cervical cancer and dysplasia caused by human papillomavirus (“HPV”). Our investigational vaccines are administered using a room temperature-stable tablet, rather than by injection.

Our Product Pipeline

Figure 1. The following table outlines the status of our oral vaccine development programs:

We are developing the following tablet vaccine candidates, which are all based on our proprietary platform:

• Norovirus Vaccine. Norovirus is the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis symptoms, such as vomiting and diarrhea, among people of all ages in the United States. Each year, on average, norovirus causes 19 to 21 million cases of acute gastroenteritis and contributes to 109,000 hospitalizations and 900 deaths, mostly among young children and older adults. In a study by the CDC and Johns Hopkins University, published in 2016, the global annual economic impact of norovirus disease was estimated at $60 billion, $34 billion of which occurred in high income regions including the United States. An update by the lead authors estimated the burden in the U.S. alone to be $10.5 billion annually in 2018. Virtually all norovirus disease is caused by norovirus GI and GII genotypes, and we are developing a bivalent vaccine candidate designed to protect against both.

In September 2023, we announced that our Phase 2 GI.1 norovirus challenge study evaluating the safety, immunogenicity, and clinical efficacy of the GI.1 component of our bivalent norovirus vaccine candidate met five of six primary endpoints based on preliminary topline data. The study achieved its primary endpoints of a statistically significant 29% relative reduction in the rate of norovirus infection between the vaccinated and placebo arms, a strong induction of norovirus-specific immunoglobulin A (IgA) and immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies, and other immune response endpoints. Vaccination also led to a 21% relative reduction in norovirus acute gastroenteritis in the vaccine arm compared to placebo, but this was not statistically significant. In prespecified analyses, the study also showed an 85% relative decrease in viral shedding in the vaccine arm compared with placebo and no statistically significant difference in disease severity in the vaccinated cohort compared with placebo. The vaccine candidate was also safe and well tolerated with no vaccine-related serious adverse events.

In July 2023, we announced our Phase 2 placebo-controlled dose-ranging trial evaluating the safety and immunogenicity of our bivalent norovirus vaccine candidate met all primary endpoints and our bivalent norovirus vaccine candidate was well-tolerated with robust immunogenicity based on preliminary topline data. Preliminary results showed robust increases in serum antibody responses across both doses at Day 29 relative to Day 1. Placebo subjects did not have a measurable increase in the antibody response. The vaccine candidate also had a favorable safety profile that included no vaccine-related serious adverse events and no dose limiting toxicity. Adverse event rates for both doses were similar to placebo.

We are currently conducting additional analyses of the data from our norovirus trials and will engage with regulators to discuss a Phase 2B study and potentially a GII.4 challenge study. We expect the Phase 2B study will generate sufficient safety data to enable us to have an end of Phase 2 meeting with the FDA, potentially as early as in the fourth quarter of 2024. The end of Phase 2 meeting will allow us to gain concurrence on the scope and design of the Phase 3 pivotal efficacy study in adults over 18 years of age.

In the Fall of 2022, we announced a study that would receive significant funding and support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to evaluate whether our bivalent norovirus vaccine candidate induces antibodies in the breast milk of lactating mothers and whether infants up to six months of age can acquire those antibodies by breastfeeding. Passive transfer of antibodies from mother to infant that are induced in milk may protect breastfeeding infants from infectious pathogens. We initiated this study in the fourth quarter of 2023. As a grant recipient from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Vaxart has agreed to a global access commitment for use of its bivalent norovirus vaccine candidate, if proven effective and approved, in breastfeeding mothers from low- and middle-income countries.

• Coronavirus Vaccine. COVID-19, a severe respiratory tract infection caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2, is a major cause of hospitalization and death in the U.S. and worldwide. According to the CDC, an outbreak of COVID-19 began in Wuhan, China, in late 2019 and rapidly spread worldwide. While most COVID-19 restrictions, such as stay-at-home orders, have been lifted, COVID-19 continues to spread and remains a public health threat, not least due to the continuing emergence of new variants.

In September 2022, we announced the results from the first part of a two-part Phase 2 clinical study evaluating the safety and immunogenicity of our oral COVID-19 (spike (“S”) protein only) vaccine candidate VXA-CoV2-1.1-S met both its primary and secondary endpoints based on topline data. VXA-CoV2-1.1-S was able to boost the serum antibody responses for volunteers that previously received an mRNA vaccine (either Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna). Serum neutralizing antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 (Wuhan), a recognized correlate of protection, were boosted in this population from a geometric mean of 481 to 778, a fold rise of 1.6. Volunteers that had lower starting titers had larger increases than subjects that had higher titers. There were also substantial increases in the neutralizing antibody responses to the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA4/5 in these volunteers as measured by sVNT assay. Increases in the mucosal IgA antibody responses (antibodies in the nose and mouth) were observed in approximately 50% of subjects. Subjects that had an increase in the mucosal IgA response to SARS-CoV-2 Wuhan S had an increase in IgA responses to other coronaviruses including SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA4/5, SARS-CoV-1, and MERS-CoV, demonstrating the cross-reactive nature of these immune readouts. We are not proceeding with the second part of the study.

In February 2021, we announced our Phase 1 study evaluating the safety and immunogenicity of our oral COVID-19 (S and nucleocapsid (“N”) proteins) vaccine candidate VXA-CoV2-1 met both its primary and secondary endpoints based on preliminary data. Initial results showing cross-reactive mucosal antibody responses were published in Science Translational Medicine. Additional detailed study results and mucosal durability data were reported in medRxiv in July 2022.

We have also initiated preclinical work on novel vaccine constructs that seek to create more a potent pan-betacoronavirus vaccine candidate that would respond to SARS-CoV-2 and also other betacoronaviruses (such as SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV).

The Company remains engaged in discussions with regulatory agencies, governments, non-governmental organizations and other potential strategic parties to determine the best way to progress its pan-betacoronavirus vaccine program.

• Influenza Vaccine. Flu is a contagious respiratory illness caused by influenza viruses that infect the nose, throat, and sometimes the lungs. An estimated one billion cases of seasonal influenza occur annually worldwide, of which three to five million cases are considered severe, causing 290,000 to 650,000 deaths per year. In the United States, between 9,000,000 to 41,000,000 people catch influenza annually, between 140,000 and 710,000 people are hospitalized with complications of influenza, and between 12,000 and 52,000 people die from influenza and its complications each year. The total economic burden of seasonal influenza in the United States has been estimated to be $87.1 billion, including medical costs which average $10.4 billion annually, while lost earnings due to illness and loss of life amount to $16.3 billion annually.

In September 2018, we completed a $15.7 million contract with the U.S. Government through the Department of Health and Human Services, Office of Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (“BARDA”) under which a Phase 2 challenge study of our H1N1 flu vaccine candidate was conducted. We announced that, in healthy volunteers immunized and then experimentally infected with H1 influenza, our H1 influenza oral tablet vaccine candidate reduced clinical disease by 39% relative to placebo. Fluzone, the market-leading injectable quadrivalent influenza vaccine, reduced clinical disease by 27%. Our tablet vaccine candidate also showed a favorable safety profile, indistinguishable from placebo.

On October 2018, we presented data from the study demonstrating that our vaccine candidate elicited a significant expansion of mucosal homing receptor plasmablasts to approximately 60% of all activated B cells. We believe these mucosal plasmablasts are a key indicator of a protective mucosal immune response and a unique feature of our vaccine candidates.

We have also initiated early-stage development on novel vaccine constructs containing our own antigens to develop a universal influenza vaccine candidate. We had previously produced a non-GMP oral vaccine candidate containing certain proprietary antigens from Janssen Vaccines & Prevention B.V. (“Janssen”) and tested the candidate in a preclinical challenge model. The preclinical study has been completed and we have submitted a report to Janssen. In August 2023, Janssen announced it would exit all vaccine and infectious disease R&D programs aside from an E.coli preventive vaccine and continuing to provide access to marketed HIV products.

The Company intends to work with governments around the world to create pandemic monovalent influenza vaccines for emergency use or stockpiling, if requested. We are also continuing development of our preclinical seasonal and universal influenza vaccine candidates.

• HPV Therapeutic Vaccine. Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer in women worldwide and in the United States with about 13,000 new cases diagnosed annually in the United States according to the National Cervical Cancer Coalition. Our first therapeutic oral vaccine candidate targets HPV 16 and HPV 18, the two strains responsible for 70% of cervical cancers and precancerous cervical dysplasia.

We have tested our HPV 16 vaccine candidate in two different HPV 16 solid tumor models in mice. The HPV 16 vaccine candidate elicited T cell responses and promoted migration of the activated T cells into the tumors, leading to tumor cell killing. Mice that received our HPV 16 vaccine candidate showed a significant reduction in volume of their established tumors.

In October 2018, we filed a pre-IND meeting request with the FDA for our first therapeutic vaccine candidate targeting HPV 16 and HPV 18 and we subsequently submitted our pre-IND briefing package. We received feedback from the FDA in January 2019 to support submission of an IND application to support initiation of clinical testing.

The Company remains engaged in discussions with regulatory agencies, governments, non-governmental organizations and other potential strategic parties to determine the best way to progress its HPV program.

Antivirals

• Through the Merger, we acquired two royalty earning products, Relenza and Inavir. We also acquired three Phase 2 clinical stage antiviral compounds, which we have discontinued independent clinical development of. However, for one of these, Vapendavir, we entered into an exclusive worldwide license agreement with Altesa Biosciences, Inc. (“Altesa”) in July 2021, permitting Altesa to develop and commercialize this capsid-binding broad spectrum antiviral. In May 2022, Altesa announced its intention to initiate clinical trials.
• Relenza and Inavir are antivirals for the treatment of influenza, marketed by GlaxoSmithKline, plc (“GSK”) and Daiichi Sankyo Company, Limited (“Daiichi Sankyo”), respectively. We have earned royalties on the net sales of Relenza and Inavir in Japan. The last patent for Relenza expired in July 2019 and the last patent for Inavir expires in December 2029. Sales of these antivirals vary significantly by quarter, because influenza virus activity displays strong seasonal cycles, and by year depending on the intensity and duration of the flu season, the impact COVID-19 has had, and may continue to have, on seasonal influenza, and competition from other antivirals such as Tamiflu and Xofluza.

Financial Operations Overview

Revenue

Non-Cash Royalty Revenue Related to Sale of Future Royalties

In April 2016, Aviragen sold certain royalty rights related to Inavir in the Japanese market for $20.0 million to HealthCare Royalty Partners III, L.P. (“HCRP”). We pay HCRP the first $3 million plus 15% of the next $1 million of royalties earned in annual periods ending on March 31. At the time of the Merger, the estimated future benefit to HCRP was remeasured at fair value and was estimated to be $15.9 million, which we account for as a liability and amortize using the effective interest method over the remaining estimated life of the arrangement. The estimated future benefit was remeasured as of December 31, 2022, when the fair value was estimated to be $5.7 million, resulting in a revaluation gain of $7.0 million in the year ended December 31, 2022. Even though we do not retain the related royalties under the transaction, as the amounts are remitted to HCRP, we will continue to record revenue related to these royalties until the amount of the associated liability and related interest is fully amortized.

Grant Revenue

In November 2022, the Company accepted a grant (the “BMGF Grant”) to perform research and development work for the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (“BMGF”) and received $2.0 million in advance that was recorded as restricted cash and deferred revenue. The Company received an additional $1.5 million in July 2023 upon completion of certain milestones. The Company recognizes revenue under research contracts only when a contract has been executed and the contract price is fixed or determinable. Revenue from the BMGF Grant is recognized in the period during which the related costs are incurred and the related services are rendered, provided that the applicable conditions under the contract have been met. Costs of contract revenue are recorded as a component of operating expenses in the consolidated statements of operations and comprehensive loss. The Company recognized revenue from the BMGF Grant of $1.7 million in the three months ended September 30, 2023 and $3.4 million in the nine months ended September 30, 2023. As of September 30, 2023 and December 31, 2022, restricted cash and deferred revenue were $79,000 and $2.0 million, respectively.

Research and Development Expenses

Research and development expenses represent costs incurred on conducting research, such as developing our tablet vaccine platform, and supporting preclinical and clinical development activities of our tablet vaccine candidates. We recognize all research and development costs as they are incurred. Research and development expenses consist primarily of the following:

• employee-related expenses, which include salaries, benefits and stock-based compensation;
• expenses incurred under agreements with contract research organizations (“CROs”), that conduct clinical trials on our behalf;
• expenses incurred under agreements with contract manufacturing organizations (“CMOs”), that manufacture product used in the clinical trials;
• expenses incurred in procuring materials and for analytical and release testing services required to produce vaccine candidates used in clinical trials;
• process development expenses incurred internally and externally to improve the efficiency and yield of the bulk vaccine and tablet manufacturing activities
• laboratory supplies and vendor expenses related to preclinical research activities;
• consultant expenses for services supporting our clinical, regulatory and manufacturing activities; and
• facilities, depreciation and allocated overhead expenses.

We do not allocate our internal expenses to specific programs. Our employees and other internal resources are not directly tied to any one research program and are typically deployed across multiple projects. Internal research and development expenses are presented as one total.

We have incurred significant external costs for CROs that conduct clinical trials on our behalf, and for CMOs that manufacture our tablet vaccine candidates, although these costs have decreased since 2022 since we now perform the majority of our manufacturing activities in-house. We have captured these external costs for each vaccine program. We do not allocate external costs incurred on preclinical research or process development to specific programs.

The following table shows our period-over-period research and development expenses, identifying external costs that were incurred in each of our vaccine programs and, separately, on preclinical research and process development (in thousands):

We expect to incur significant research and development expenses in 2023 and beyond as we advance our tablet vaccine candidates into and through clinical trials, pursue regulatory approval of our tablet vaccine candidates and prepare for a possible commercial launch, all of which will also require a significant investment in manufacturing and inventory related costs. To the extent that we enter into licensing, partnering or collaboration agreements, a significant portion of such costs may be borne by third parties.

The process of conducting clinical trials necessary to obtain regulatory approval is costly and time consuming. We may never succeed in achieving marketing approval for our tablet vaccine candidates. The probability of successful commercialization of our tablet vaccine candidates may be affected by numerous factors, including clinical data obtained in future trials, competition, manufacturing capability and commercial viability. As a result, we are unable to determine the duration and completion costs of our research and development projects or when and to what extent we will generate revenue from the commercialization and sale of any of our tablet vaccine candidates.

General and Administrative Expense

General and administrative expenses consist of personnel costs, insurance, allocated expenses and expenses for outside professional services, including legal, audit, accounting, public relations, market research and other consulting services. Personnel costs consist of salaries, benefits and stock-based compensation. Allocated expenses consist of rent, depreciation and other facilities related expenses.

Results of Operations

The following table presents period-over-period changes in selected items in the condensed consolidated statements of operations and comprehensive loss for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2023 and 2022 (in thousands, except percentages):

* Percentages greater than 100% or not meaningful

Total Revenue

The following table summarizes the period-over-period changes in our revenues for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2023 and 2022 (in thousands, except percentages):

* Percentages greater than 100% or not meaningful

Non-cash Royalty Revenue Related to Sale of Future Royalties

Non-cash royalty revenue related to sale of future royalties for the three months ended September 30, 2023 and 2022, was $0.4 million and nil, respectively, and for the nine months ended September 30, 2023 and 2022, was $0.8 million and $85,000, respectively. The increase was due to an increase in sales of Inavir in Japan. Non-cash royalty revenue of up to $3.3 million may be earned each year ending March 31. The Company’s royalty revenue is seasonal, in line with the flu season, so the majority of the Company’s royalty revenue and non-cash royalty revenue related to the sale of future royalties are earned in the first and fourth fiscal quarters.

Grant Revenue

The Company recognized revenue from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Grant of $1.7 million and $3.4 million in the three and nine months ended September 30, 2023, respectively.

Total Operating Expenses

The following table summarizes the period-over-period changes in our operating expenses for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2023 and 2022 (in thousands, except percentages):

Research and Development

For the three months ended September 30,2023, research and development expenses decreased by $7.5 million, or 33%, compared to the three months ended September 30,2022. The decrease is primarily due to decreases in manufacturing costs, personnel related costs and clinical trial expenses related to our COVID-19 vaccine candidates, partially offset by increased depreciation.

For the nine months ended September 30, 2023, research and development expenses decreased by $7.2 million, or 12%, compared to the nine months ended September 30, 2022. The decrease is primarily due to decreases in manufacturing costs, personnel related costs and clinical trial expenses related to our COVID-19 vaccine candidates, partially offset by increased facilities and depreciation expense and increased clinical trial expenses related to our norovirus vaccine candidates.

General and Administrative

For the three months ended September 30, 2023, general and administrative expenses decreased by $2.0 million, or 29%, compared to the three months ended September 30, 2022. The decrease is primarily due to a decrease in legal and professional fees, directors' and officers' insurance and personnel related costs, partially offset by an increase in personnel stock-based costs.

For the nine months ended September 30, 2023, general and administrative expenses decreased by $5.8 million, or 25%, compared to the nine months ended September 30, 2022. The decrease is primarily due to a decrease in litigation settlement cost, legal and professional fees, directors' and officers' insurance and personnel related costs, partially offset by an increase in personnel stock-based costs.

Non-Operating Income (Expense)

The following table summarizes the period-over-period changes in our non-operating income for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2023 and 2022, respectively (in thousands, except percentages):

* Percentages greater than 100% or not meaningful

For the three months ended September 30, 2023, we recorded interest income of $0.7 million, a 58% increase from the $0.5 million interest income recorded in the three months ended September 30, 2022. For the nine months ended September 30, 2023, we recorded interest income of $2.1 million, a 219% increase from the $0.7 million interest income recorded in the nine months ended September 30, 2022. The increase is due to an increase in interest rates on our cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and marketable securities.

Non-cash interest expense related to sale of future royalties, which relates to accounting for sums that will become payable to HCRP for royalty revenue earned from Inavir as debt, was $0.2 million in the three months ended September 30, 2023, down from the $0.3 million in the three months ended September 30, 2022, and $0.6 million in the nine months ended September 30, 2023, down from the $1.0 million in the nine months ended September 30, 2022, as the outstanding balance due to HCRP has been paid down and remeasured. We project a further reduction in 2023 following the December 2022 revaluation of our liability to HCRP.

Provision for Income Taxes

The following table summarizes the period-over-period changes in our provision for income taxes for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2023 and 2022, respectively (in thousands, except percentages):

* Percentages greater than 100% or not meaningful

The provision for income taxes was $39,000 and $16,000 in the three months ended September 30, 2023 and 2022, respectively, and $87,000 and $51,000 in the nine months ended September 30, 2023 and 2022, respectively. The tax charge relates primarily to interest on an intercompany loan from a foreign subsidiary and a 5% withholding tax on royalty revenue earned on sales of Inavir in Japan, which is potentially recoverable as a foreign tax credit but expensed because we record a 100% valuation allowance against our deferred tax assets. The amount of income tax expense recorded is directly proportional to Inavir royalties, including the portion that we pass through to HCRP.

Liquidity and Capital Resources

Our primary source of financing is from the sale and issuance of common stock and common stock warrants in public offerings, along with proceeds from the exercise of warrants. In the past, we have also obtained funds from the issuance of secured debt and preferred stock and from collaboration agreements.

In June 2023, Vaxart completed an underwritten public offering (the “June 2023 Offering”) in which 16,000,000 shares of its common stock were sold at an offering price of $0.8680 per share. The net proceeds from the June 2023 Offering were $13.6 million after deducting underwriting discounts and commission and estimated offering expenses payable by Vaxart.

In September 2021, we entered into a Controlled Equity Offering Sales Agreement (the “September 2021 ATM”), under which we may offer and sell, from time to time through sales agents, shares of our common stock having an aggregate offering price of up to $100 million. We will incur direct expenses and pay sales commissions of up to 3.0% of gross proceeds from the sale of shares under the September 2021 ATM.

As of September 30, 2023, we had received net proceeds of $1.4 million from the sale of common stock under the September 2021 ATM and there is approximately $79.0 million in net proceeds still available to us. Since September 30, 2023, we have not raised any additional capital under the September 2021 ATM.

As of September 30, 2023, we had approximately $53.0 million of cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and marketable securities. Our expectation is that we will continue to generate operating losses and negative operating cash flows in the future and the need for additional funding to support our planned operations raise substantial doubt regarding our ability to continue as a going concern for a period of one year after the date that the financial statements are issued.

Management intends on completing additional financing transactions in the next 12 months. The sale of additional equity would result in additional dilution to our stockholders. We may fund a significant portion of our ongoing operations through partnering and collaboration agreements which, while reducing our risks and extending our cash runway, will also reduce our share of eventual revenues, if any, from our vaccine candidates. We may be able to fund certain activities with assistance from government programs. We may also fund our operations through debt financing, which would result in debt service obligations, and the instruments governing such debt could provide for operating and financing covenants that would restrict our operations.

However, due to several factors, including those outside management’s control, there can be no assurance that the Company will be able to complete additional financing transactions. If we are unable to raise additional capital in sufficient amounts or on acceptable terms, management’s plans include further reducing or delaying operating expenses.

Our future funding requirements will depend on many factors, including the following:

• the timing and costs of our planned preclinical studies for our product candidates;
• the timing and costs of our planned clinical trials of our product candidates;
• our manufacturing capabilities, including the availability of contract manufacturing organizations to supply our product candidates at reasonable cost;
• the amount and timing of royalties received on sales of Inavir;
• the number and characteristics of product candidates that we pursue;
• the outcome, timing and costs of seeking regulatory approvals;
• revenue received from commercial sales of our future products, which will be subject to receipt of regulatory approval;
• the terms and timing of any future collaborations, licensing, consulting or other arrangements that we may enter into;
• the amount and timing of any payments that may be required in connection with the licensing, filing, prosecution, maintenance, defense and enforcement of any patents or patent applications or other intellectual property rights;
• our ability to stay listed on Nasdaq; and
• the extent to which we in-license or acquire other products and technologies.

Cash Flows

The following table summarizes our cash flows for the periods indicated (in thousands):

Net Cash Used in Operating Activities

We experienced negative cash flow from operating activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2023 and 2022, in the amounts of $56.9 million and $65.6 million, respectively. The cash used in operating activities in the nine months ended September 30, 2023, was due to cash used to fund a net loss of $65.1 million and a decrease in working capital of $8.4 million, partially offset by adjustments for net non-cash income related to depreciation and amortization, amortization of discount on investments, net, stock-based compensation, non-cash interest expense related to sale of future royalties and non-cash revenue related to sale of future royalties totaling $16.5 million. The cash used in operating activities in the nine months ended September 30, 2022, was due to cash used to fund a net loss of $83.8 million and a decrease in working capital of $3.3 million, further decreased by adjustments for net non-cash income related to depreciation and amortization, amortization of discount on investments, net, stock-based compensation, non-cash interest expense related to sale of future royalties and non-cash revenue related to sale of future royalties totaling $14.9 million.

Net Cash Provided by (Used in) Investing Activities

In the nine months ended September 30, 2023, we received $30.7 million from maturities of marketable securities, net of purchases, and used $1.9 million to purchase property and equipment, net of disposals. In the nine months ended September 30, 2022, we used $25.5 million to purchase marketable securities, net of maturities, $5.7 million to purchase property and equipment and $5.0 million to pay for right-of-use assets.

Net Cash Provided by Financing Activities

In the nine months ended September 30, 2023, we received net proceeds of $13.6 million from the sale of 16,000,000 shares of our common stock, $1.4 million from the sale of common stock under the September 2021 ATM and $0.3 million from the issuance of common stock under the employee stock purchase plan. In the nine months ended September 30, 2022, we received $8.7 million from the sale of common stock under the September 2021 ATM and $0.2 million from the exercise of stock options and warrants.

Contractual Obligations and Commercial Commitments

We have the following contractual obligations and commercial commitments as of September 30, 2023 (in thousands):

Long Term Debt, HCRP. Under an agreement executed in 2016, we are obligated to pay HCRP the first $3 million plus 15% of the next $1 million of royalty revenues that we earn for sales of Inavir in each year ending on March 31. See Note 6 to the Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements in Part I, Item 1 for further details.

Operating leases. Operating lease amounts include future minimum lease payments under all our non-cancellable operating leases with an initial term in excess of one year. See Note 7 to the Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements in Part I, Item 1 for further details of leases.

Purchase obligations. These amounts include an estimate of all open purchase orders and contractual obligations in the ordinary course of business, including commitments with contract manufacturers and suppliers for which we have not received the goods or services. We consider all open purchase orders, which are generally enforceable and legally binding, to be commitments, although the terms may afford us the option to cancel based on our business needs prior to the delivery of goods or performance of services.

Share-based payment arrangements. Beginning in 2022, we shifted from awarding only options to issuing a mixture of options and restricted stock units (“RSUs”) to our employees. As of September 30, 2023, the unrecognized stock-based compensation cost related to outstanding unvested stock options and RSUs expected to vest was $21.3 million, which the Company expects to recognize over an estimated weighted average period of 2.24 years. See Note 10 for further details on stock-based compensation expense recognized.

Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates

Our management’s discussion and analysis of financial condition and results of operations is based on our consolidated financial statements, which have been prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States. The preparation of these financial statements requires us to make estimates and judgments that affect the reported amounts of assets, liabilities and expenses. On an ongoing basis, we evaluate these estimates and judgments. We base our estimates on historical experience and on various assumptions that we believe to be reasonable under the circumstances. These estimates and assumptions form the basis for making judgments about the carrying values of assets and liabilities and the recording of expenses that are not readily apparent from other sources. Actual results may differ materially from these estimates. We believe that the accounting policies discussed below are critical to understanding our historical and future performance, as these policies relate to the more significant areas involving management’s judgments and estimates.

Accrued Research and Development Expenses

We record accrued expenses for estimated costs of research and development activities conducted by third-party service providers, which include the conduct of preclinical studies and clinical trials, and contract manufacturing activities. We record the estimated costs of research and development activities based upon the estimated amount of services provided and include the costs incurred but not yet invoiced within other accrued liabilities in the consolidated balance sheets and within research and development expense in the consolidated statements of operations and comprehensive loss. These costs can be a significant component of our research and development expenses.

We estimate the amount of work completed through discussions with internal personnel and external service providers as to the progress or stage of completion of the services and the agreed-upon fee to be paid for such services. We make significant judgments and estimates in determining the accrued balance in each reporting period. As actual costs become known, we adjust our accrued estimates.

Intangible Assets

Intangible assets acquired in the Merger were initially recorded at their estimated fair values of $20.3 million for developed technology related to Inavir which was, until it was revalued, being amortized on a straight-line basis over the estimated period of future royalties of 11.75 years and $1.8 million for the developed technology related to Relenza which was fully amortized as of December 31, 2022. The developed technology related to Inavir was revalued at $5.0 million as of December 31, 2022, resulting in an impairment loss of $4.3 million being recorded. These valuations were prepared by an independent third party based on discounted cash flows of estimated future revenue streams, which are highly subjective. The fair value, as reassessed as of December 31, 2022, is being amortized on a straight-line basis over the remaining period of future royalties of 6.1 years.

Stock-Based Compensation

We measure the fair value of all stock option awards to employees, non-executive directors and consultants on the grant date, and record the fair value of these awards, net of estimated forfeitures, as compensation expense over the service period. The fair value of options is estimated using the Black-Scholes valuation model and the expense recorded is affected by subjective assumptions regarding a number of variables, as follows:

Expected term – This represents the period that our stock-based awards granted are expected to be outstanding and is determined using the simplified method (the arithmetic average of its original contractual term and its average vesting term). We have very limited historical information to develop reasonable expectations about future exercise patterns and post-vesting employment termination behavior for our stock-based awards. Based on the weighted average applied to options awarded in nine months ended September 30, 2023, a notional 10% decrease in expected term would have reduced the fair value and the related compensation expense by approximately 2%.

Expected volatility – This is a measure of the amount by which our common stock price has fluctuated or is expected to fluctuate. Since the beginning of 2020 we have measured volatility based on the historical volatility of our own stock over the retrospective period corresponding to the expected term of the options on the measurement date. Based on the weighted average applied to options awarded in nine months ended September 30, 2023, a notional 10% decrease in expected volatility (from 128% to 115%) would have reduced the fair value and the related compensation expense by approximately 4%.

Risk-free interest rate – This is based on the U.S. Treasury yield curve on the measurement date corresponding with the expected term of the stock-based awards.

Expected dividend – We have not made any dividend payments and do not plan to pay dividends in the foreseeable future. Therefore, we use an expected dividend yield of zero.

Forfeiture rate – This is a measure of the number of awards that are expected to not vest and is reassessed quarterly. An increase in the estimated forfeiture rate will cause a small decrease in the related compensation expense early in the service period, but since the final expense recorded for each award is the number of options vested times their grant date fair value, it has no impact on the total expense recorded.

Recent Accounting Pronouncements

See the “Recent Accounting Pronouncements” in Note 2 to the Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements in Part I, Item 1 for information related to the issuance of new accounting standards in the first nine months of 2023, none of which had a material impact on our condensed consolidated financial statements.

Interest Rate Sensitivity

Our exposure to market risk for changes in interest rates relates primarily to our investments in marketable debt securities. The primary objective of our investment activities is to preserve principal, maintain liquidity that is sufficient to meet cash needs and maximize total return without significantly increasing risk. To achieve this goal, we maintain our excess cash and cash equivalents in money market funds and debt securities. We do not enter into investments for trading or speculative purposes and we hold no equity securities. We presently have no borrowings or lines of credit.

Specifically, as of September 30, 2023, we had cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and investments of approximately $53.0 million, which consist of bank deposits, money market funds, direct obligations of the U.S. government or its agencies, commercial paper and corporate bonds. All of our investments must satisfy high credit rating requirements at the time of purchase. Such interest-earning instruments carry a degree of interest rate risk, however, because our investments are rated highly and mostly short-term, we believe that our exposure to risk of loss due to interest rate changes is not significant.

Exchange Rate Sensitivity

Our royalty revenue, which is calculated in U.S. dollars, is based on sales in Japanese yen, so a 1% increase in the strength of the U.S. dollar against the yen would lead to a 1% reduction in royalty revenue. All our other revenue and substantially all of our expenses, assets and liabilities are denominated in U.S. dollars and, as a result, we have not experienced significant foreign exchange gains or losses recently and do not anticipate that foreign exchange gains or losses will be significant in the near future.

Evaluation of Disclosure Controls and Procedures

Our management, with the participation of our principal executive officer and principal accounting and financial officer, has evaluated the effectiveness of our disclosure controls and procedures (as defined in Rules 13a-15(e) and 15d-15(e) under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) as of the end of the period covered by this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q. Based on such evaluation, our management has concluded that our disclosure controls and procedures were effective at a reasonable assurance level as of September 30, 2023.

Changes in Internal Control over Financial Reporting

There was no material change in our internal control over financial reporting that occurred during the quarter ended September 30, 2023, that has materially affected, or is reasonably likely to materially affect, our internal control over financial reporting.

Inherent Limitations on Effectiveness of Controls

Our management, including our principal executive officer and principal accounting and financial officer, does not expect that our disclosure controls and procedures or our internal controls will prevent all error and all fraud. A control system, no matter how well conceived and operated, can provide only reasonable, not absolute, assurance that the objectives of the control system are met. Further, the design of a control system must reflect the fact that there are resource constraints, and the benefits of controls must be considered relative to their costs. Because of the inherent limitations in all control systems, no evaluation of controls can provide absolute assurance that all control issues and instances of fraud, if any, within Vaxart have been detected.

You should consider the risks and uncertainties described under Item 1A of Part I of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2022, which we filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 15, 2023, together with all other information contained or incorporated by reference in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, when evaluating our business and our prospects. There are no material changes to the risk factors set forth in Part I, Item 1A, in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022. We have marked with an asterisk (*) those risks described below that reflect additions to the risks described in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022.

* Our recurring losses from operations and negative cash flows have raised substantial doubt regarding our ability to continue as a going concern. We will require substantial additional funding to finance our operations, and if we are unable to raise capital, we could be forced to delay, reduce the scope of or eliminate certain of our development programs, or explore other strategic options.

Our recurring losses from operations and negative cash flows raise substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern. As of September 30, 2023, we had $53.0 million of cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and investments. We believe these funds are sufficient to fund our operations into the third quarter of 2024.

Our ability to continue as a going concern is dependent upon our ability to raise additional capital through outside sources. We plan to raise additional capital through the sale of convertible stock, additional equity, debt financings or strategic alliances with third parties. Such financing and funding may not be available at all, or on terms that are favorable to us. Failure to raise additional capital could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial condition and/or our ability to fund our scheduled obligations on a timely basis or at all.

If we are unable to continue as a going concern, we may be forced to liquidate our assets and the values we receive for our assets in liquidation or dissolution could be significantly lower than the values reflected in our financial statements.

* Our failure to meet the continued listing requirements of The Nasdaq Capital Market could result in a delisting of our common stock.

Our common stock is listed on The Nasdaq Capital Market, which imposes, among other requirements, a $1.00 minimum bid price requirement set forth in Nasdaq Listing Rule 5550(a)(2). Our common stock traded for less than $1.00 for 30 consecutive trading days, and we received notice of this from the Listing Qualifications Department of The Nasdaq Stock Market on July 21, 2023. Under Nasdaq Listing Rule 5810(c)(3)(A), we were granted a 180-calendar day grace period, or until January 17, 2024, to regain compliance with the minimum bid price requirement. The minimum bid price requirement would be met if our common stock had a minimum closing bid price of at least $1.00 per share for a minimum of ten consecutive business days during the 180-calendar day grace period. If at any time during this 180-calendar day period the bid price of the Company’s common stock closes at or above $1.00 per share for a minimum of ten consecutive business days, the Nasdaq staff stated that it will provide the Company with a written confirmation of compliance and the matter will be closed. However, under Nasdaq Listing Rule 5810(c)(3)(A), the Nasdaq staff may exercise its discretion to extend this ten-day period as discussed in Rule 5810(c)(3)(H).

Alternatively, if we fail to regain compliance with Rule 5550(a)(2) prior to the expiration of the initial 180-calendar day period, we may be eligible for an additional 180-calendar day compliance period, provided (i) we meet the continued listing requirement for market value of publicly held shares and all other applicable requirements for initial listing on The Nasdaq Capital Market (except for the $1.00 minimum bid price requirement) and (ii) we provide written notice to Nasdaq of our intention to cure this deficiency during the second compliance period by effecting a reverse stock split, if necessary. In the event we do not regain compliance with Rule 5550(a)(2) prior to the expiration of the initial 180-calendar day period, and if it appears to the Staff that we will not be able to cure the deficiency, or if we are not otherwise eligible, the Staff stated that it will provide us with written notification that our securities are subject to delisting from The Nasdaq Capital Market. At that time, we may appeal the delisting determination to a Hearings Panel. There can be no assurance that we will be able to regain compliance or that Nasdaq will grant us a further extension of time to regain compliance, if necessary.

The delisting of our common stock from Nasdaq may make it more difficult for us to raise capital on favorable terms in the future, or at all. Such a delisting would likely have a negative effect on the price of our common stock and would impair our stockholders’ ability to sell or purchase our common stock when they wish to do so. Further, if our common stock were to be delisted from The Nasdaq Capital Market, our common stock would cease to be recognized as a covered security and we would be subject to additional regulation in each state in which we offer our securities. Moreover, there is no assurance that any actions that we take to restore our compliance with the Nasdaq minimum bid requirement would stabilize the market price or improve the liquidity of our common stock, prevent our common stock from falling below the Nasdaq minimum bid price required for continued listing again, or prevent future non-compliance with Nasdaq’s listing requirements.

There can be no assurance that we will continue to meet the minimum bid price requirement, or any other requirement in the future. If we fail to meet the minimum bid price requirement, or other applicable Nasdaq listing requirements, including maintaining minimum levels of stockholders’ equity or market values of our common stock, our common stock could be delisted. If our common stock were to be delisted, the liquidity of our common stock would be adversely affected, and the market price of our common stock could decrease.

* Unless our common stock continues to be listed on a national securities exchange it will become subject to the so-called “penny stock” rules that impose restrictive sales practice requirements.

If we are unable to maintain the listing of our common stock on Nasdaq or another national securities exchange, our common stock could become subject to the so-called “penny stock” rules if the shares have a market value of less than $5.00 per share. The SEC has adopted regulations that define a penny stock to include any stock that has a market price of less than $5.00 per share, subject to certain exceptions, including an exception for stock traded on a national securities exchange. The SEC regulations impose restrictive sales practice requirements on broker-dealers who sell penny stocks to persons other than established customers and “accredited investors” as defined by relevant SEC rules. These additional requirements may discourage broker-dealers from effecting transactions in securities that are classified as penny stocks, which could severely limit the market price and liquidity of such securities and the ability of purchasers to sell such securities in the secondary market. This means that if we are unable to maintain the listing of our common stock on a national securities exchange, the ability of stockholders to sell their common stock in the secondary market could be adversely affected.

If a transaction involving a penny stock is not exempt from the SEC’s rule, a broker-dealer must deliver a disclosure schedule relating to the penny stock market to each investor prior to a transaction. The broker-dealer also must disclose the commissions payable to both the broker-dealer and its registered representative, current quotations for the penny stock, and, if the broker-dealer is the sole market-maker, the broker-dealer must disclose this fact and the broker-dealer’s presumed control over the market. Finally, monthly statements must be sent disclosing recent price information for the penny stock held in the customer’s account and information on the limited market in penny stocks.