Invesco CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust: Form 10-Q for the period ended Sep 30, 2022

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Information

This report contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements can be identified by words such as “anticipate,” “expect,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” “seek,” “outlook” and “estimate” and other similar words. Forward-looking statements are based upon our current expectations and beliefs concerning future developments and their potential effects on us. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. Various factors may cause our actual results to differ materially from those expressed in our forward-looking statements. These factors include fluctuations in the price of the Australian Dollar, as the value of the Shares relates directly to the value of the Australian Dollars held by the Trust and price fluctuations could materially adversely affect an investment in the Shares. Readers are urged to review the “Risk Factors” section contained in the Trust’s most recent annual report on Form 10-K for a description of other risks and uncertainties that may affect an investment in the Shares.

Neither Invesco Specialized Products, LLC (the “Sponsor”) nor any other person assumes responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of forward-looking statements contained in this report. The forward-looking statements are made as of the date of this report, and will not be revised or updated to reflect actual results or changes in the Sponsor’s expectations or predictions.

Overview/Introduction

The Invesco CurrencyShares® Australian Dollar Trust (the “Trust”) is a grantor trust that was formed on June 8, 2006. The Shares began trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol “FXA” on June 26, 2006. The primary listing of the Shares was transferred to NYSE Arca, Inc. (“NYSE Arca”) on October 30, 2007. The Trust issues shares (the “Shares”) in blocks of 50,000 (a “Basket”) in exchange for deposits of Australian Dollars and distributes Australian Dollars in connection with the redemption of Baskets.

The investment objective of the Trust is for the Shares to reflect the price in USD of the Australian Dollar plus accrued interest, if any, less the expenses of the Trust’s operations. The Shares are intended to offer investors an opportunity to participate in the market for the Australian Dollar through an investment in securities. The Shares are intended to provide institutional and retail investors with a simple, cost-effective means of gaining investment benefits similar to those of holding the Australian Dollar. The Shares are bought and sold on NYSE Arca like any other exchange-listed security. The Shares are backed by the assets of the Trust, which does not hold or use derivative products. The Trust is a passive investment vehicle and does not have any officers, directors or employees. The Trust does not engage in any activities designed to obtain profit from, or ameliorate losses caused by, changes in the price of the Australian Dollar. Investing in the Shares does not insulate the investor from certain risks, including price volatility. The value of the holdings of the Trust is reported on the Trust’s website, www.invesco.com/etfs (http://www.invesco.com/etfs), each business day.

Definition of Net Asset Value

The Trustee calculates, and the Sponsor publishes, the Trust’s Net Asset Value (“NAV”) each business day. To calculate the NAV, the Trustee adds to the amount of Australian Dollars in the Trust at the end of the preceding day accrued but unpaid interest, if any, Australian Dollars receivable under pending purchase orders and the value of other Trust assets, and subtracts the accrued but unpaid Sponsor’s fee, Australian Dollars payable under pending redemption orders and other Trust expenses and liabilities, if any. The NAV is expressed in USD based on the Australian Dollar/USD exchange rate as determined by The WM Company at 4:00 PM (London time / London fixing) (the “Closing Spot Rate”) on each day that NYSE Arca is open for regular trading. If, on a particular evaluation day, the Closing Spot Rate has not been determined and announced by 6:00 PM (London time), then the most recent Closing Spot Rate is used to determine the NAV of the Trust unless the Trustee, in consultation with the Sponsor, determines that such price is inappropriate to use as the basis for the valuation.

The Trustee also determines the NAV per Share, which equals the NAV of the Trust divided by the number of outstanding Shares. The NAV of the Trust and the NAV per Share are published by the Sponsor on each day that NYSE Arca is open for regular trading and are posted on the Trust’s website, www.invesco.com/etfs (http://www.invesco.com/etfs).

Movements in the Price of the Australian Dollar

The investment objective of the Trust is for the Shares to reflect the price in USD of the Australian Dollar plus accrued interest, if any, less the expenses of the Trust’s operations. The Shares are intended to provide institutional and retail investors with a simple, cost-effective means of gaining investment benefits similar to those of holding Australian Dollars. Each outstanding Share represents a proportional interest in the Australian Dollars held by the Trust. The following chart provides recent trends on the price of the Australian Dollar. The chart illustrates movements in the price of the Australian Dollar in USD and is based on the Closing Spot Rate:

NAV per Share; Valuation of the Australian Dollar

The following chart illustrates the movement in the price of the Shares based on (1) NAV per Share, (2) the “bid” and “ask” midpoint offered on NYSE Arca and (3) the Closing Spot Rate, expressed as a multiple of 100 Australian Dollars:

Liquidity and Capital Resources

The Trust does not have any material cash requirements as of the end of the latest fiscal period. The Sponsor is not aware of any known trends, demands, commitments, events or uncertainties that will result in, or are reasonably likely to result in, material changes to the Trust’s liquidity and capital resources needs. The Trust’s Depository, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., London Branch, maintains two deposit accounts for the Trust, a primary deposit account that may earn interest and a secondary deposit account that does not earn interest. Interest on the primary deposit account, if any, accrues daily and is paid monthly. The interest rate in effect as of September 30, 2022 was an annual nominal rate of 0.40%. The following chart provides the daily rate paid by the Depository since September 30, 2017:

In exchange for a fee, the Sponsor bears most of the expenses incurred by the Trust. As a result, the only ordinary expense of the Trust during the period covered by this report was the Sponsor’s fee. Each month the Depository deposits into the secondary deposit account accrued but unpaid interest, if any, and the Trustee withdraws Australian Dollars from the secondary deposit account to pay the accrued Sponsor’s fee for the previous month plus other Trust expenses (including, without limitation, expenses resulting from negative interest rates), if any. When the interest deposited, if any, exceeds the sum of the Sponsor’s fee for the prior month plus other Trust expenses, if any, the Trustee converts the excess into USD at the prevailing market rate and distributes the USD as promptly as practicable to Shareholders on a pro-rata basis (in accordance with the number of Shares that they own). The Trust did not make any distributions during the quarter ended September 30, 2022.

Critical Accounting Estimates

The financial statements and accompanying notes are prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP. The preparation of these financial statements relies on estimates and assumptions that impact the Trust’s financial position and results of operations. These estimates and assumptions affect the Trust’s application of accounting policies. In addition, please refer to Note 3 to the financial statements of the Trust for further discussion of the Trust’s accounting policies and Item 7 – Management’s Discussions and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations – Critical Accounting Estimates on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021.

Results of Operations

During the three and nine months ended September 30, 2022 and 2021, the Trust’s net comprehensive income (loss) was, in part, impacted by market volatility and uncertainty caused by the novel coronavirus known as COVID-19, which is considered to be an unusual or infrequent event. Additionally, the Trust’s net comprehensive income (loss) during the three and nine months ended September 30, 2022 was, in part, impacted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which is also considered to be an unusual or infrequent event. Although the full and direct impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the Trust’s net comprehensive income (loss) during the three and nine months ended September 30, 2022 and 2021 cannot be known, it is believed that the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have each independently impacted the Closing Spot Rate, the interest rate paid by the Depository, and the global economy and markets generally, including the number of Shares created and redeemed by the Trust.

The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) continued its negative performance in the third quarter of 2022, weighed down heavily by further strengthening of the US dollar, which hit over 20-year highs in September, and the sharp selloff in commodities. Both were triggered by growing recession fears and expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes. With Australia being a net energy exporter and commodities accounting for a large share of the country’s exports, lower goods prices dent demand for the “commodity currency.”

The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) performed negatively in the third quarter of 2021, continuing its downtrend from Q2 as the US dollar strengthened on rising treasury yields resulting from the Fed’s hawkish turn, and commodities sold off on the rapid spread of the delta variant of COVID-19. Commodities make up a large portion of the country’s exports, leaving the country’s currency subject to price trends in the asset class.

Despite being the best performing G10 currency in Q1, supported by massive gains across the commodities complex following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) failed to keep its positive performance through Q2 and Q3 of 2022, succumbing to recession-fears driven dollar strength and the sharp commodities sell off (especially in Q3). The AUD is seen as a “commodity currency” given the country is a net energy exporter and commodities account for a large share of the country’s exports.

The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) ended the first three quarters of 2021 lower. In Q1, the US dollar rebounded on strong domestic economic recovery and rising treasury yields while persistent market volatility reduced investor demand for the perceived riskier Aussie. Then, despite rallying a bit in Q2 on a weakening US dollar and strengthening commodities prices, resurging COVID concerns and the Fed’s hawkish turn in the second half of Q2 into Q3 led to a spike in the US dollar and a sharp selloff in commodities, pushing returns back into negative territory.

Additionally, the interest rate paid by the Depository has generally trended downward over the past several years, slightly offset by improvements this quarter, to the current interest rate of 0.40%, as set forth in the FXA Rate Chart above. As long as the Sponsor’s fee and the interest expense on currency deposits, if any, exceed interest income, the Trust will incur a net comprehensive loss.

Except as described above with respect to fluctuations in the Australian Dollar/US dollar exchange rate and changes in the nominal annual interest rate paid by the Depository on Australian Dollars held by the Trust, the Trust is not subject to market risk. The Trust does not hold securities and does not invest in derivative instruments.

Under the supervision and with the participation of the management of the Sponsor, including Anna Paglia, its Principal Executive Officer, and Kelli Gallegos, its Principal Financial and Accounting Officer, Investment Pools, the Trust carried out an evaluation of the effectiveness of the design and operation of its disclosure controls and procedures (as defined in Rules 13a-15(e) or 15d-15(e) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”)) as of the end of the period covered by this Quarterly Report, and, based upon that evaluation, Anna Paglia, the Principal Executive Officer of the Sponsor, and Kelli Gallegos, the Principal Financial and Accounting Officer, Investment Pools, of the Sponsor, concluded that the Trust's disclosure controls and procedures were effective to provide reasonable assurance that information the Trust is required to disclose in the reports that it files or submits with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) under the Exchange Act is recorded, processed, summarized and reported, within the time periods specified in the SEC's rules and forms, and to provide reasonable assurance that information required to be disclosed by the Trust in the reports that it files or submits under the Exchange Act is accumulated and communicated to management of the Sponsor, including its Principal Executive Officer and Principal Financial Officer, as appropriate to allow timely decisions regarding required disclosure.

Changes in Internal Control Over Financial Reporting

There has been no change in internal control over financial reporting (as defined in the Rules 13a-15(f) and 15d-15(f) of the Exchange Act) that occurred during the Trust’s quarter ended September 30, 2022 that has materially affected, or is reasonably likely to materially affect, the Trust's internal control over financial reporting.

ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

The Russia-Ukraine conflict and economic sanctions against Russia in connection with such conflict could materially and adversely affect the value of the Shares.

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022, various countries, including the United States, Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Germany, France, and Japan, as well as NATO and the European Union, issued broad-ranging economic sanctions against Russia and Belarus. The resulting sanctions (and potential further sanctions in response to continued military activity), the potential for military escalation and other corresponding events, have had, and could continue to have, severe negative effects on regional and global economic and financial markets, including increased volatility, reduced liquidity and overall uncertainty. Russia may take additional counter measures or retaliatory actions (including cyberattacks), which could exacerbate negative consequences on global financial markets. The duration of ongoing hostilities and corresponding sanctions and related events cannot be predicted. Impacts from the conflict and related events may result in increased volatility in the value of currencies held by the Trust and may have an adverse effect on the performance of the Trust and value of the Shares.