Murphy Oil Corp: Form 10-Q for the period ended Sep 30, 2025

Outlook

The oil and natural gas industry is impacted by global commodity pricing and as a result the prices for the Company’s primary products are often volatile and are affected by the levels of supply and demand for energy. As discussed in the “Results of Operations” section discussing revenues, on page 36, lower average crude oil and higher natural gas pricing during the third quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 directly impacted the Company’s product sales revenue.

As of close on November 3, 2025, forward price curves for existing forward contracts for the remainder of 2025 and 2026 are shown in the following table.

In late June 2025, Shell Canada Energy announced its first cargo of liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipped from the Kitimat facility in British Columbia. Increases in export levels of Canadian liquefied natural gas would impact our natural gas-weighted Canadian business.

In April 2025, the U.S. government announced a baseline tariff of 10% on products imported from all countries and an additional individualized reciprocal tariff on the countries with which the United States has the largest trade deficits. Increased tariffs by the United States have led and may continue to lead to the imposition of retaliatory tariffs by foreign jurisdictions. Additionally, the U.S. government has announced and rescinded multiple tariffs on several foreign jurisdictions, which has increased uncertainty regarding the ultimate effect of the tariffs on economic conditions. In August 2025, however, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled that many of the tariffs imposed under the Trump Administration exceed presidential authority and therefore are invalid, though the decision has been stayed pending U.S. Supreme Court review. This ruling introduces additional uncertainty as to the scope and durability of existing and future tariff measures. Current uncertainties about tariffs and their effects on trading relationships may affect costs for and availability of goods and services used in E&P operations or contribute to inflation in the countries in which we operate. Although we are continuing to monitor the economic effects of such announcements and developments, as well as opportunities to mitigate their related impacts, costs and other effects associated with the tariffs remain uncertain.

We cannot predict what impact economic factors (including, but not limited to, inflation, global conflicts, trade policies, tariffs, other trade restrictions, and possible economic recession) may have on future commodity pricing and future costs for goods and services in the E&P operations. Lower prices or higher costs, should they occur, will result in lower profits and operating cash flows and could result in material future impairment charges.

For the fourth quarter of 2025, production is expected to average between 176.0 and 184.0 thousand barrels of oil equivalents per day, excluding noncontrolling interest.

The Company’s capital expenditures for 2025 are expected to be between $1,135 million and $1,285 million, excluding noncontrolling interest. This includes net acquisition capital of $104 million for the BW Pioneer FPSO in the Gulf of America, and excludes $23.0 million for the purchase of additional working interests in Eagle Ford Shale acreage primarily operated by Murphy. The Company remains on schedule to commence a three-well exploration program in Côte d’Ivoire in the fourth quarter of 2025, consisting of the Civette-1X (Block CI-502), Caracal-1X (Block CI-102), and Bubale-1X (Block CI-709) wells. Murphy is also continuing the drilling of the Hai Su Vang-2X (Golden Sea Lion) appraisal well in Block 15-2/17, offshore Vietnam, with results anticipated in the fourth quarter. The Cello #1 (Mississippi Canyon 385) and Banjo #1 (Mississippi Canyon 385) exploration wells in the Gulf of America will also be drilled in the fourth quarter of 2025. Finally, we will continue field development activities in Vietnam at Lac Da Vang (Golden Camel), Block 15-1/05, with scheduled first oil anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Capital and other expenditures are routinely reviewed and planned capital expenditures may be adjusted to reflect differences between budgeted and forecast cash flow during the year. Capital expenditures may also be affected by asset purchases or sales, which often are not anticipated at the time a budget is prepared. The Company will primarily fund its capital program in 2025 using operating cash flow and available cash. If oil and/

The Company is exposed to market risks associated with prices of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products, foreign currency exchange rates, and interest rates. As described in Note L, Murphy periodically makes use of derivative financial and commodity instruments to manage risks associated with existing or anticipated transactions.

Commodity Price Risk

There were commodity-based derivative contracts in place as of September 30, 2025, covering certain future U.S. natural gas sales volumes in 2025. A 10% increase in the respective benchmark price of these commodities would have decreased the net receivable associated with these derivative contracts by approximately $1.8 million, while a 10% decrease in the respective benchmark price would have increased the recorded net receivable by a similar amount.

Foreign Exchange Risk

There were no derivative foreign exchange contracts in place at September 30, 2025.

Interest Rate Risk

The Company’s senior unsecured RCF provides for variable interest rate borrowings. As of September 30, 2025, we had $150.0 million of outstanding borrowings under the RCF. Assuming no change in the amount of borrowings outstanding under the RCF, a 10% increase in the average interest rate would have increased our quarterly interest expense by approximately $0.3 million. Actual results may vary due to changes in the amount of variable rate debt outstanding.

Under the direction of its principal executive officer and principal financial officer, controls and procedures have been established by the Company to ensure that material information relating to the Company and its consolidated subsidiaries is made known to the officers who certify the Company’s financial reports and to other members of senior management and the Board of Directors.

Based on the Company’s evaluation as of the end of the period covered by the filing of this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, the principal executive officer and principal financial officer of Murphy Oil Corporation have concluded that the Company’s disclosure controls and procedures (as defined in Rules 13a-15(e) and 15d-15(e) under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934) are effective to ensure that the information required to be disclosed by Murphy Oil Corporation in reports that it files or submits under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 is recorded, processed, summarized and reported within the time periods specified in SEC rules and forms.

During the quarter ended September 30, 2025, there were no changes in the Company’s internal control over financial reporting that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, the Company’s internal control over financial reporting.

The Company’s operations in the oil and natural gas business naturally lead to various risks and uncertainties. These risk factors are discussed in “Item 1A. Risk Factors” in the Company’s 2024 Form 10-K filed on February 27, 2025. The Company has not identified any additional risk factors not previously disclosed in its 2024 Form 10-K report.