Listed's forecast leagues ask one question each quarter: how close can you get to the figures a company is about to report? The filings decide. These rules are fixed for a season when it opens. The guide how Listed leagues score your calls works through examples.
The short version
- Leagues are free to join. There is no entry fee, no prize and no cash value. Leagues award badges only.
- For each company on the list, you forecast its revenue, diluted EPS and gross margin for the quarter that just ended.
- Your forecasts lock the moment the company's first results filing for that quarter is accepted by EDGAR.
- When the 10-Q or 10-K arrives, each forecast is scored against the reported figure by the formula below.
Seasons
Seasons are quarterly. Each season covers the fiscal quarters that end within one calendar quarter. For example, the season for quarters ending in July, August and September runs while those results are filed, from October into the following months.
A season closes when every target in it has been scored or voided.
Who can take part
- Any member can join the public league. Joining needs no purchase, and Pro does not change how anyone is scored.
- One account per person.
- An agent you have authorized with the
writescope can submit forecasts for you. They appear on your entry marked with the agent's name, follow the same rules and are scored the same way. You are responsible for them.
Targets
A company becomes a target when its fiscal quarter has ended and its results for that quarter have not yet been filed. Targets are companies that file 10-Qs and 10-Ks. The league page lists each open target with its period end and the date its report is due.
What you forecast
For each target, three metrics, all for the three months of the quarter:
| Metric | Unit |
|---|---|
| Revenue | The currency the company reports in, shown on the target page (usually US dollars) |
| Diluted EPS | That currency per diluted share. A loss is a negative number |
| Gross margin | Percent of revenue |
For a company that reports no gross profit, the third metric is operating margin instead. Which margin applies is set when the target opens, from the company's latest 10-Q or 10-K, and shown on the target page.
You can leave a metric blank. A blank metric scores 0.
Reasoning. You can explain your forecast in up to 1,000 characters. Your figures stay sealed until the target locks, so nobody can copy an open forecast. With a public profile, others see that you have forecast a target, and when, while it is open. Your reasoning shows as soon as you save it, unless you choose "Sealed until the lock"; with a private profile it is sealed until the lock by default. Once your reasoning is public it stays public. If you turn your profile off, your forecasts and reasoning leave every public page until you turn it on again. Reasoning that states your figures before the lock gives them away, and the form warns you when it looks like it does.
Changes. You can change a forecast as often as you like until it locks. The last version saved before the lock is the one that counts.
When forecasts lock
Every forecast on a target locks at the EDGAR acceptance time of the first results filing after the period end. A results filing is any of these:
- an 8-K with item 2.02 (results of operations), usually the earnings release;
- the 10-Q for the quarter;
- the 10-K, for a fourth quarter.
The acceptance time is EDGAR's own timestamp, to the second, in Eastern Time. A forecast saved after it does not count, even if Listed had not yet shown the target as locked. Each locked forecast shows when it locked and which filing locked it.
Actuals
Forecasts are scored against the figures as first reported in the 10-Q or 10-K for the quarter, from that filing's XBRL data.
- Figures from an earnings release are not used. The release locks forecasts; the 10-Q or 10-K scores them.
- A later amendment or restatement does not change a score.
- Fourth quarter. Companies file no 10-Q for the fourth quarter, so Q4 revenue is the fiscal year less the three quarters, each as first reported:
Q4 = fiscal year − Q1 − Q2 − Q3. Q4 gross profit and operating income are derived the same way, and the Q4 margin is the derived profit divided by the derived revenue. - Diluted EPS is never derived. It must be reported by the company as a three-month figure for the quarter.
Definitions of each metric are in the glossary: revenue, diluted EPS, gross margin, operating margin.
Scoring
Each metric is scored separately:
score = 100 × max(0, 1 − |forecast − actual| / tolerance)
| Metric | Tolerance |
|---|---|
| Revenue | 10% of the absolute actual |
| Diluted EPS | 20% of the absolute actual, and never less than $0.05 |
| Gross or operating margin | 5 percentage points |
An exact forecast scores 100. A forecast that misses by the whole tolerance or more scores 0. Between the two, the score falls in a straight line. A target is worth up to 300 points.
A metric that scores more than 0 is a hit, and one that scores 0 is a miss. Your hit rate is your hits divided by the scored metrics you forecast.
Void metrics
A metric the filings cannot support is void for everyone. It scores nothing for anyone and does not count toward hit rates. A metric is void when:
- the 10-Q or 10-K does not report it for the quarter, for example when there is no three-month diluted EPS figure for a fourth quarter;
- the actual revenue is zero, which leaves no tolerance for revenue and no margin.
A whole target is void if no 10-Q or 10-K for the quarter is filed within 120 days of the period end.
Ranking
The leaderboard ranks members by their total score across every scored metric in the league for the season. Ties are broken by earliest submission: of two members with the same total, the one whose last change to a counted forecast was saved earlier ranks higher.
The all-time leaderboard sums each member's public-league standing across every season. Members who play only in private leagues are not on it, as they are on no public board.
Accounts we run to test the service never rank. They do not appear on leaderboards, on profiles or in counts.
Discussion and ratings
Comments. Signed-in members can comment on, and reply to comments on, the forecasts of members with a public profile, before and after the lock. A comment is 2 to 1,000 characters of plain text. You can delete your own comments; there is no editing. You can report a comment or a forecaster's reasoning once. When three established members report it, it is hidden until a moderator reviews it. Comments are members' opinions, not advice.
Ratings. After a target locks, members can rate a forecast's reasoning from 1 to 5, once each, and change or clear the rating. You cannot rate your own forecast, or a forecast without reasoning. A rating counts when the member's account is at least 7 days old and has made a forecast. A forecast's average shows from 5 counted ratings, and a forecaster's from 5 counted ratings by at least 3 members. Moderators can discount ratings that look traded or coordinated.
Changes to comments and hidden posts can take a few minutes to reach readers who are not signed in.
Ratings never change scores, ranks or badges.
Badges
Leagues award badges for results such as a finishing rank. Badges have no cash value and cannot be sold, transferred or exchanged for anything.
Private leagues
Pro members can create a private league for a club and invite people with a link. Joining a private league is free. Private leagues use the same targets, rules and scoring as the public league, with their own leaderboard.
Fair play
- Do not use more than one account, or anyone else's account, to change the standings.
- Do not coordinate forecasts or reasoning to mislead people about a company.
- Do not comment, rate or report from more than one account, or trade ratings.
- Forecasts, reasoning, comments and ratings are opinions, not advice, and must not be presented as advice.
We may void a forecast, or remove a member from a league, for breaking these rules or the Acceptable use policy. The Investment disclaimer explains why leagues award badges only.
Corrections
If Listed ingests an actual wrongly, we correct it and rescore the target, and the leaderboard changes with it. A company's own later restatement does not cause a rescore. To report a figure you think is wrong, use the report link on the figure.
Changes to these rules
The rules for a season are fixed when it opens. Any change to scoring or ranking applies from the next season, and this page says what changed.
What changed (Oct 2026)
Forecasts gained reasoning that can show before the lock, a page of their own with comments, and reasoning ratings; public profiles now list open forecasts as sealed entries; and there is an all-time leaderboard. Scoring, ranking and badges are unchanged, so this applies from now, mid-season. Reasoning saved before this change stays sealed until its target locks.